- λ home
- 2.06
- λ away
- 1.04
- Σλ total
- 3.10
- P(over 2.5)
- 60%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.9%
FC Koln W vs SC Freiburg W prediction & xG model: FC Koln W to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
FC Koln W v SC Freiburg W: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipFC Koln W to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for FC Koln W v SC Freiburg W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (17 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Koln W (home) | 1.91 | 1.03 | 1.07 | 2.10 |
| SC Freiburg W (away) | 1.66 | 0.71 | 0.88 | 1.04 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.91 × 1.03 × 1.07 ≈ 2.10
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.14 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.10 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.10 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.06, λaway = 1.04
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 60.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 18.4%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FC Koln W | 60.9% | 66.0% | 55.8% | 61.7% |
| X Draw | 21.4% | 16.0% | 22.9% | 18.9% |
| 2 SC Freiburg W | 17.7% | 18.0% | 21.3% | 19.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.120 → 12.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FC Koln W pick | 61.7% | 1.62 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -1.2% | |
| X · Draw | 18.9% | 5.29 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -26.3% | |
| 2 · SC Freiburg W | 19.4% | 5.16 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -18.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 80.6% | 1.24 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -4.9% | |
| X2 | 38.3% | 2.61 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -17.7% | |
| 12 | 81.1% | 1.23 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -1.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FC Koln W | 76.1% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| DNB SC Freiburg W | 23.9% | 4.19 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.5% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.5% | 5.41 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 59.9% | 1.67 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 40.1% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.5% | 2.67 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 58.9% | 1.70 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -7.5% | |
| BTTS no | 41.1% | 2.44 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -9.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.7% | 2.24 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.3% | 2.68 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.9% | 5.58 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.617 × 1.60 − 1 = -0.012 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FC Koln W | SC Freiburg W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWWWL | WLWLWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
FC Koln W at 62%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: FC Koln W 6th on 15, SC Freiburg W 11th on 10.
Form
Sequence for FC Koln W: W L W W W L, so four victories in six. Latest: 2–1 away at Hertha Berlin W. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
SC Freiburg W have three wins from their last six (W L W L W D). Latest: 2–1 away at Andernach W. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FC Koln W 2.06 · SC Freiburg W 1.04 · total 3.10. High total: over 2.5 60%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: FC Koln W to win, probability 62%, odds 1.60 v fair 1.62. Most probable score: FC Koln W 2–1 SC Freiburg W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Frauen Bundesliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich W | 10 | +27 | 30 |
| 2 |  VfL Wolfsburg W | 10 | +17 | 24 |
| 3 |  Werder Bremen W | 10 | +6 | 19 |
| 4 |  Eintracht Frankfurt W | 9 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen W | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  FC Koln W | 9 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 |  1899 Hoffenheim W | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 |  Union Berlin W | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 |  Stuttgart W | 9 | -10 | 11 |
| 10 |  RB Leipzig W | 9 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 |  SC Freiburg W | 10 | -8 | 10 |
| 12 |  Hamburger SV W | 10 | +2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Nürnberg W | 9 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 |  Mainz 05 W | 10 | -30 | 0 |
More Frauen Bundesliga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FC Koln W vs SC Freiburg W?
The Model pick is FC Koln W to win with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.60 by the bookmakers.
What are the FC Koln W v SC Freiburg W probabilities?
FC Koln W win 62%, draw 19%, SC Freiburg W win 19%.
What is the most probable score for FC Koln W vs SC Freiburg W?
FC Koln W 2–1 SC Freiburg W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FC Koln W vs SC Freiburg W?
FC Koln W 2.06, SC Freiburg W 1.04 – over 2.5 at 60%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is FC Koln W vs SC Freiburg W?
Saturday 3 October 2026, 15:00 WAT, at Franz-Kremer-Stadion – Frauen Bundesliga.