- λ home
- 1.26
- λ away
- 2.74
- Σλ total
- 4.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 76%
- P(BTTS)
- 67%
- Modal score
- 1–2 8.7%
Eintracht Frankfurt W vs Bayern Munich W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Eintracht Frankfurt W v Bayern Munich W: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Eintracht Frankfurt W v Bayern Munich W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 18 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt W (home) | 1.91 | 1.13 | 0.60 | 1.28 |
| Bayern Munich W (away) | 1.66 | 1.66 | 0.73 | 2.01 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.91 × 1.13 × 0.60 ≈ 1.28
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.29 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 4.00 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 4.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.26, λaway = 2.74
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 15.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 16.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 68.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 8.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Eintracht Frankfurt W | 24.0% | 13.0% | 17.6% | 14.9% |
| X Draw | 22.5% | 15.0% | 19.6% | 16.9% |
| 2 Bayern Munich W | 53.5% | 72.0% | 62.8% | 68.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.137 → 13.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Eintracht Frankfurt W | 14.9% | 6.70 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -25.3% | |
| X · Draw | 16.9% | 5.91 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -23.9% | |
| 2 · Bayern Munich W | 68.2% | 1.47 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -4.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 31.8% | 3.14 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -16.6% | |
| X2 | 85.1% | 1.18 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -4.7% | |
| 12 | 83.1% | 1.20 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -2.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Eintracht Frankfurt W | 18.0% | 5.56 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Bayern Munich W | 82.0% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 90.8% | 1.10 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 9.2% | 10.92 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 76.2% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 23.8% | 4.20 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 56.7% | 1.77 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 43.3% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 66.7% | 1.50 | 1.53 | 65.4% | +2.0% | |
| BTTS no | 33.3% | 3.00 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -23.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 17.1% | 5.85 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 30.8% | 3.24 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 52.1% | 1.92 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.667 × 1.53 − 1 = +0.020 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.039 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt W | Bayern Munich W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWWW | WWDWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 6-0-0 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per match | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / match | 3.17 | 3.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% |
| BTTS | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Bayern Munich W 68%, Eintracht Frankfurt W 15%. Standings: Eintracht Frankfurt W 4th on 17, Bayern Munich W 1st on 30.
Form
Sequence for Eintracht Frankfurt W: W W W W W W, so six victories in six. Latest: 4–1 at home to FH W. Scoring rate: 3.2 per match – well above average.
Bayern Munich W have five wins from their last six (W W D W W W). Latest: 3–0 away at SL Benfica W. Scoring rate: 3.2 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Eintracht Frankfurt W 1.26 · Bayern Munich W 2.74 · total 4.00. Goals expected – 76% for over 2.5 and 67% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 67%, odds 1.53 v fair 1.50. Most probable score: Eintracht Frankfurt W 1–2 Bayern Munich W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Frauen Bundesliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich W | 10 | +27 | 30 |
| 2 |  VfL Wolfsburg W | 10 | +17 | 24 |
| 3 |  Werder Bremen W | 10 | +6 | 19 |
| 4 |  Eintracht Frankfurt W | 9 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen W | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  FC Koln W | 9 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 |  1899 Hoffenheim W | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 |  Union Berlin W | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 |  Stuttgart W | 9 | -10 | 11 |
| 10 |  RB Leipzig W | 9 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 |  SC Freiburg W | 10 | -8 | 10 |
| 12 |  Hamburger SV W | 10 | +2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Nürnberg W | 9 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 |  Mainz 05 W | 10 | -30 | 0 |
More Frauen Bundesliga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Eintracht Frankfurt W vs Bayern Munich W?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.53 by the bookmakers.
What are the Eintracht Frankfurt W v Bayern Munich W probabilities?
Eintracht Frankfurt W win 15%, draw 17%, Bayern Munich W win 68%.
What is the most probable score for Eintracht Frankfurt W vs Bayern Munich W?
Eintracht Frankfurt W 1–2 Bayern Munich W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Eintracht Frankfurt W vs Bayern Munich W?
Eintracht Frankfurt W 1.26, Bayern Munich W 2.74 – over 2.5 at 76%, BTTS at 67%.
What time is Eintracht Frankfurt W vs Bayern Munich W?
Saturday 3 October 2026, 16:55 WAT, at Stadion am Brentanobad – Frauen Bundesliga.