- λ home
- 0.79
- λ away
- 1.66
- Σλ total
- 2.45
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 45%
- Modal score
- 0–1 14.3%
Bucaspor 1928 vs Karsiyaka prediction & xG model: Karsiyaka to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Bucaspor 1928 21% · draw 18% · Karsiyaka 61%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Bucaspor 1928 v Karsiyaka: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Bucaspor 1928 v Karsiyaka are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.30 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.58 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.45 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.79, λaway = 1.66
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 17.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 57.9%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 14.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Bucaspor 1928 | – | 19.0% | 24.2% | 21.2% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 26.6% | 17.5% |
| 2 Karsiyaka | – | 70.0% | 49.2% | 61.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Bucaspor 1928 | 21.2% | 4.72 | 3.68 | 27.2% | -22.0% | |
| X · Draw | 17.5% | 5.70 | 3.35 | 29.9% | -41.2% | |
| 2 · Karsiyaka pick | 61.3% | 1.63 | 1.81 | 55.2% | +10.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 38.7% | 2.58 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -31.8% | |
| X2 | 78.8% | 1.27 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -7.0% | |
| 12 | 82.5% | 1.21 | 1.22 | 82.0% | +0.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Bucaspor 1928 | 25.7% | 3.89 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Karsiyaka | 74.3% | 1.35 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.7% | 1.41 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -10.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.3% | 3.42 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -8.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.9% | 2.18 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -11.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -5.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25.1% | 3.98 | 3.34 | 29.9% | -16.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 74.9% | 1.34 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -7.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 45.4% | 2.20 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -18.7% | |
| BTTS no | 54.6% | 1.83 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +1.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 16.0% | 6.24 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.3% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 40.7% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.613 × 1.81 − 1 = +0.109 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.135 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Bucaspor 1928 | Karsiyaka |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDLLWL | WWWDWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Karsiyaka 61%, Bucaspor 1928 21%. Standings: Bucaspor 1928 13th on 8, Karsiyaka 6th on 21.
Form
Sequence for Bucaspor 1928: D D L L W L, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–0 away at Denizli İYG. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Karsiyaka have four wins from their last six (W W W D W D). Latest: 2–1 at home to Nilüfer Belediye. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Bucaspor 1928 0.79 · Karsiyaka 1.66 · total 2.45. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 45%.
Model selection
Selection: Karsiyaka to win, probability 61%, odds 1.81 v fair 1.63. Most probable score: Bucaspor 1928 0–1 Karsiyaka. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
3. Lig Group 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Eskişehirspor | 11 | +21 | 24 |
| 2 |  Etimesgut SK | 11 | +13 | 23 |
| 3 |  Balıkesirspor | 11 | +12 | 23 |
| 4 |  Nilüfer Belediye | 11 | +14 | 22 |
| 5 |  Anadolu Üniversitesi | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 6 |  Karsiyaka | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 7 |  Ayvalikgucu | 11 | +5 | 21 |
| 8 |  Bigaspor | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 9 |  Bursa Yıldırımspor | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 10 |  Gaziemirspor | 11 | -6 | 13 |
| 11 |  Altay | 11 | -12 | 10 |
| 12 |  Söke 1970 | 11 | -7 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bucaspor 1928 | 11 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 |  Kepezspor | 11 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 |  Denizli İYG | 11 | -14 | 8 |
| 16 |  Alanya 1221 FK | 11 | -15 | 8 |
| 17 |  Uşak Spor | 11 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 |  Akşehirspor | 11 | -20 | 4 |
More 3. Lig Group 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Bucaspor 1928 vs Karsiyaka?
The Model pick is Karsiyaka to win with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.81 by the bookmakers.
What are the Bucaspor 1928 v Karsiyaka probabilities?
Bucaspor 1928 win 21%, draw 18%, Karsiyaka win 61%.
What is the most probable score for Bucaspor 1928 vs Karsiyaka?
Bucaspor 1928 0–1 Karsiyaka is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Bucaspor 1928 vs Karsiyaka?
Bucaspor 1928 0.79, Karsiyaka 1.66 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 45%.
What time is Bucaspor 1928 vs Karsiyaka?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 17:00 WAT – 3. Lig Group 2.