- λ home
- 0.81
- λ away
- 1.61
- Σλ total
- 2.42
- P(over 2.5)
- 45%
- P(BTTS)
- 47%
- Modal score
- 0–1 14.3%
Altay vs Bursa Yıldırımspor prediction & xG model: Bursa Yıldırımspor to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Altay 23% · draw 18% · Bursa Yıldırımspor 60%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Altay v Bursa Yıldırımspor: who are you backing?
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Altay v Bursa Yıldırımspor are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.30 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.52 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.42 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.81, λaway = 1.61
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 18.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 56.2%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 14.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Altay | – | 21.0% | 24.6% | 22.5% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 26.7% | 17.6% |
| 2 Bursa Yıldırımspor | – | 68.0% | 48.7% | 59.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Altay | 22.5% | 4.44 | 3.62 | 27.6% | -18.5% | |
| X · Draw | 17.6% | 5.69 | 3.34 | 29.9% | -41.3% | |
| 2 · Bursa Yıldırımspor pick | 59.9% | 1.67 | 1.83 | 54.6% | +9.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 40.1% | 2.49 | 1.74 | 57.5% | -30.2% | |
| X2 | 77.5% | 1.29 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -8.6% | |
| 12 | 82.4% | 1.21 | 1.22 | 82.0% | +0.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Altay | 27.3% | 3.66 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Bursa Yıldırımspor | 72.7% | 1.38 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -9.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.1% | 3.32 | 3.04 | 32.9% | -8.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.8% | 2.23 | 1.99 | 50.3% | -10.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -6.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.2% | 4.14 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -15.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.8% | 1.32 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -7.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 46.8% | 2.14 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -14.8% | |
| BTTS no | 53.2% | 1.88 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -3.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 16.6% | 6.01 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.8% | 2.28 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 39.6% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.599 × 1.83 − 1 = +0.096 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.116 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Altay | Bursa Yıldırımspor |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDLLW | LWDWDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.50 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Bursa Yıldırımspor narrowly ahead at 60%; Altay 23%. Standings: Altay 11th on 10, Bursa Yıldırımspor 9th on 20.
Form
Sequence for Altay: L L D L L W, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–2 away at Bigaspor. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match.
Bursa Yıldırımspor, last six: L W D W D D – two wins in total. Latest: 1–4 at home to Etimesgut SK. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Altay 0.81 · Bursa Yıldırımspor 1.61 · total 2.42. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 45%, BTTS 47%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Bursa Yıldırımspor to win, probability 60%, odds 1.83 v fair 1.67. Most probable score: Altay 0–1 Bursa Yıldırımspor. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
3. Lig Group 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Eskişehirspor | 11 | +21 | 24 |
| 2 |  Etimesgut SK | 11 | +13 | 23 |
| 3 |  Balıkesirspor | 11 | +12 | 23 |
| 4 |  Nilüfer Belediye | 11 | +14 | 22 |
| 5 |  Anadolu Üniversitesi | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 6 |  Karsiyaka | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 7 |  Ayvalikgucu | 11 | +5 | 21 |
| 8 |  Bigaspor | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 9 |  Bursa Yıldırımspor | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 10 |  Gaziemirspor | 11 | -6 | 13 |
| 11 |  Altay | 11 | -12 | 10 |
| 12 |  Söke 1970 | 11 | -7 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bucaspor 1928 | 11 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 |  Kepezspor | 11 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 |  Denizli İYG | 11 | -14 | 8 |
| 16 |  Alanya 1221 FK | 11 | -15 | 8 |
| 17 |  Uşak Spor | 11 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 |  Akşehirspor | 11 | -20 | 4 |
More 3. Lig Group 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Altay vs Bursa Yıldırımspor?
The Model pick is Bursa Yıldırımspor to win with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.83 by the bookmakers.
What are the Altay v Bursa Yıldırımspor probabilities?
Altay win 23%, draw 18%, Bursa Yıldırımspor win 60%.
What is the most probable score for Altay vs Bursa Yıldırımspor?
Altay 0–1 Bursa Yıldırımspor is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Altay vs Bursa Yıldırımspor?
Altay 0.81, Bursa Yıldırımspor 1.61 – over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 47%.
What time is Altay vs Bursa Yıldırımspor?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 13:00 WAT, at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadium – 3. Lig Group 2.