- λ home
- 1.28
- λ away
- 1.26
- Σλ total
- 2.54
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 50%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.7%
Orduspor 1967 vs Beykoz Anadolu prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Orduspor 1967 41% · draw 18% · Beykoz Anadolu 41%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Orduspor 1967 v Beykoz Anadolu: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Orduspor 1967 v Beykoz Anadolu are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.50 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.58 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.54 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.28, λaway = 1.26
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 36.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 36.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.7%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Orduspor 1967 | – | 41.0% | 41.6% | 41.3% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 27.8% | 18.1% |
| 2 Beykoz Anadolu | – | 48.0% | 30.5% | 40.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Orduspor 1967 | 41.3% | 2.42 | 2.14 | 46.7% | -11.7% | |
| X · Draw | 18.1% | 5.53 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -42.2% | |
| 2 · Beykoz Anadolu | 40.7% | 2.46 | 2.92 | 34.2% | +18.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 59.3% | 1.69 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -24.0% | |
| X2 | 58.7% | 1.70 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -10.1% | |
| 12 | 81.9% | 1.22 | 1.24 | 80.6% | +1.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Orduspor 1967 | 50.4% | 1.99 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Beykoz Anadolu | 49.6% | 2.02 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.7% | 1.40 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -9.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.3% | 3.53 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -11.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.1% | 2.12 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -9.1% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 52.9% | 1.89 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -7.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.1% | 3.83 | 3.34 | 29.9% | -12.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 73.9% | 1.35 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -8.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 50.1% | 2.00 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -13.3% | |
| BTTS no | 49.9% | 2.00 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -4.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 28.3% | 3.53 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.7% | 2.29 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 27.9% | 3.58 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.529 × 1.75 − 1 = -0.075 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Orduspor 1967 | Beykoz Anadolu |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDLWWL | LDDWDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Orduspor 1967 41%, draw 18%, Beykoz Anadolu 41%. Standings: Orduspor 1967 10th on 14, Beykoz Anadolu 16th on 11.
Form
Sequence for Orduspor 1967: D D L W W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Karabük İdman Yurdu. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Sequence for Beykoz Anadolu: L D D W D L, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–5 at home to Yalova Yeşilovaspor. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Orduspor 1967 1.28 · Beykoz Anadolu 1.26 · total 2.54. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 50%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 2.5 goals, probability 53%, odds 1.75 v fair 1.89. Most probable score: Orduspor 1967 1–0 Beykoz Anadolu. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
3. Lig Group 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Fatsa Belediyespor | 11 | +12 | 24 |
| 2 |  Pazarspor | 11 | +6 | 19 |
| 3 |  Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 11 | +3 | 19 |
| 4 |  Düzcespor | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 |  Kartal Bulvarspor | 11 | +6 | 16 |
| 6 |  Amasyaspor 1968 | 11 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 |  Karabük İdman Yurdu | 11 | -2 | 15 |
| 8 |  İnkılapspor | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Karadeniz Ereğli BSK | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 |  Orduspor 1967 | 11 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Galata | 11 | +1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Silivrispor | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 |  Zonguldak Kömürspor | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 14 |  Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Tokat Bld Plevnespor | 11 | -4 | 12 |
| 16 |  Beykoz Anadolu | 11 | -3 | 11 |
| 17 |  Gölcükspor | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 18 |  Beykoz İshaklıspor | 11 | -10 | 4 |
More 3. Lig Group 1 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Orduspor 1967 vs Beykoz Anadolu?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 53, priced around 1.75 by the bookmakers.
What are the Orduspor 1967 v Beykoz Anadolu probabilities?
Orduspor 1967 win 41%, draw 18%, Beykoz Anadolu win 41%.
What is the most probable score for Orduspor 1967 vs Beykoz Anadolu?
Orduspor 1967 1–0 Beykoz Anadolu is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Orduspor 1967 vs Beykoz Anadolu?
Orduspor 1967 1.28, Beykoz Anadolu 1.26 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 50%.
What time is Orduspor 1967 vs Beykoz Anadolu?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 11:00 WAT – 3. Lig Group 1.