- λ home
- 1.25
- λ away
- 1.59
- Σλ total
- 2.85
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.6%
Kartal Bulvarspor vs Küçükçekmece Sinopspor prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Kartal Bulvarspor 33% · draw 18% · Küçükçekmece Sinopspor 49%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Kartal Bulvarspor v Küçükçekmece Sinopspor: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Kartal Bulvarspor v Küçükçekmece Sinopspor are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.10 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.64 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.85 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.25, λaway = 1.59
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 30.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 45.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.6%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Kartal Bulvarspor | – | 36.0% | 29.8% | 33.4% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 27.4% | 17.9% |
| 2 Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | – | 53.0% | 42.8% | 48.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Kartal Bulvarspor | 33.4% | 2.99 | 2.99 | 33.4% | -0.2% | |
| X · Draw | 17.9% | 5.59 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -41.9% | |
| 2 · Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 48.7% | 2.05 | 2.08 | 48.1% | +1.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 51.3% | 1.95 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -19.5% | |
| X2 | 66.6% | 1.50 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -14.7% | |
| 12 | 82.1% | 1.22 | 1.23 | 81.3% | +1.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Kartal Bulvarspor | 40.7% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 59.3% | 1.69 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.0% | 1.33 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -6.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.0% | 4.01 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -18.1% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 51.6% | 1.94 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -3.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.4% | 2.07 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -12.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.3% | 3.30 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -4.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.7% | 1.44 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -11.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 50.8% | 1.97 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -13.6% | |
| BTTS no | 49.2% | 2.03 | 1.96 | 51.0% | -3.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 24.9% | 4.01 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.7% | 2.45 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 34.3% | 2.91 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.516 × 1.87 − 1 = -0.035 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Kartal Bulvarspor | Küçükçekmece Sinopspor |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWLLDD | WDDDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 3-3-0 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Küçükçekmece Sinopspor narrowly ahead at 49%; Kartal Bulvarspor 33%. Standings: Kartal Bulvarspor 5th on 16, Küçükçekmece Sinopspor 3rd on 19.
Form
Sequence for Kartal Bulvarspor: D W L L D D, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–0 away at Pazarspor. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Küçükçekmece Sinopspor have three wins from their last six (W D D D W W). Latest: 1–0 at home to Fatsa Belediyespor. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Küçükçekmece Sinopspor 3–0 Kartal Bulvarspor. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Kartal Bulvarspor 1.25 · Küçükçekmece Sinopspor 1.59 · total 2.85. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection
Selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 52%, odds 1.87 v fair 1.94. Most probable score: Kartal Bulvarspor 1–2 Küçükçekmece Sinopspor. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 15 Mar 2026Küçükçekmece Sinopspor3–0Kartal Bulvarspor
3. Lig Group 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Fatsa Belediyespor | 11 | +12 | 24 |
| 2 |  Pazarspor | 11 | +6 | 19 |
| 3 |  Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 11 | +3 | 19 |
| 4 |  Düzcespor | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 |  Kartal Bulvarspor | 11 | +6 | 16 |
| 6 |  Amasyaspor 1968 | 11 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 |  Karabük İdman Yurdu | 11 | -2 | 15 |
| 8 |  İnkılapspor | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Karadeniz Ereğli BSK | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 |  Orduspor 1967 | 11 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Galata | 11 | +1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Silivrispor | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 |  Zonguldak Kömürspor | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 14 |  Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Tokat Bld Plevnespor | 11 | -4 | 12 |
| 16 |  Beykoz Anadolu | 11 | -3 | 11 |
| 17 |  Gölcükspor | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 18 |  Beykoz İshaklıspor | 11 | -10 | 4 |
More 3. Lig Group 1 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Kartal Bulvarspor vs Küçükçekmece Sinopspor?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 52, priced around 1.87 by the bookmakers.
What are the Kartal Bulvarspor v Küçükçekmece Sinopspor probabilities?
Kartal Bulvarspor win 33%, draw 18%, Küçükçekmece Sinopspor win 49%.
What is the most probable score for Kartal Bulvarspor vs Küçükçekmece Sinopspor?
Kartal Bulvarspor 1–2 Küçükçekmece Sinopspor is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Kartal Bulvarspor vs Küçükçekmece Sinopspor?
Kartal Bulvarspor 1.25, Küçükçekmece Sinopspor 1.59 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Kartal Bulvarspor vs Küçükçekmece Sinopspor?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 11:00 WAT – 3. Lig Group 1.