- λ home
- 1.18
- λ away
- 1.51
- Σλ total
- 2.69
- P(over 2.5)
- 49%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.1%
Küçükçekmece Sinopspor vs Fatsa Belediyespor prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Küçükçekmece Sinopspor v Fatsa Belediyespor: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Küçükçekmece Sinopspor v Fatsa Belediyespor are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (19 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Küçükçekmece Sinopspor (home) | 1.31 | 1.23 | 0.66 | 1.06 |
| Fatsa Belediyespor (away) | 1.26 | 1.23 | 0.97 | 1.50 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.31 × 1.23 × 0.66 ≈ 1.06
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.56 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.83 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.58 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.69 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.18, λaway = 1.51
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 29.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 44.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 26.3% | 31.0% | 31.8% | 31.3% |
| X Draw | 27.2% | 18.0% | 27.8% | 22.1% |
| 2 Fatsa Belediyespor | 46.5% | 51.0% | 40.3% | 46.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 31.3% | 3.19 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -12.2% | |
| X · Draw | 22.1% | 4.52 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -29.2% | |
| 2 · Fatsa Belediyespor | 46.5% | 2.15 | 2.21 | 45.2% | +2.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 53.5% | 1.87 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -19.8% | |
| X2 | 68.7% | 1.46 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -10.1% | |
| 12 | 77.9% | 1.28 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -3.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 40.3% | 2.48 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Fatsa Belediyespor | 59.7% | 1.67 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -7.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.9% | 3.72 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -15.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.0% | 2.04 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -5.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -10.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.7% | 3.61 | 3.34 | 29.9% | -7.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -10.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 57.5% | 1.74 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -0.5% | |
| BTTS no | 42.5% | 2.35 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -18.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 24.3% | 4.11 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.1% | 2.37 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 33.6% | 2.98 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.575 × 1.73 − 1 = -0.005 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | Fatsa Belediyespor |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDDWWL | WDWWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 47% against 31%. Standings: Küçükçekmece Sinopspor 3rd on 19, Fatsa Belediyespor 1st on 24.
Form
Sequence for Küçükçekmece Sinopspor: D D D W W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Gölcükspor. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Fatsa Belediyespor: W D W W W L, so four victories in six. Latest: 2–0 at home to Pazarspor. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Küçükçekmece Sinopspor 1.18 · Fatsa Belediyespor 1.51 · total 2.69. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 49%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.74. Most probable score: Küçükçekmece Sinopspor 1–2 Fatsa Belediyespor. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
3. Lig Group 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Fatsa Belediyespor | 11 | +12 | 24 |
| 2 |  Pazarspor | 11 | +6 | 19 |
| 3 |  Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 11 | +3 | 19 |
| 4 |  Düzcespor | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 |  Kartal Bulvarspor | 11 | +6 | 16 |
| 6 |  Amasyaspor 1968 | 11 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 |  Karabük İdman Yurdu | 11 | -2 | 15 |
| 8 |  İnkılapspor | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Karadeniz Ereğli BSK | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 |  Orduspor 1967 | 11 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Galata | 11 | +1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Silivrispor | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 |  Zonguldak Kömürspor | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 14 |  Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Tokat Bld Plevnespor | 11 | -4 | 12 |
| 16 |  Beykoz Anadolu | 11 | -3 | 11 |
| 17 |  Gölcükspor | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 18 |  Beykoz İshaklıspor | 11 | -10 | 4 |
More 3. Lig Group 1 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Küçükçekmece Sinopspor vs Fatsa Belediyespor?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the Küçükçekmece Sinopspor v Fatsa Belediyespor probabilities?
Küçükçekmece Sinopspor win 31%, draw 22%, Fatsa Belediyespor win 47%.
What is the most probable score for Küçükçekmece Sinopspor vs Fatsa Belediyespor?
Küçükçekmece Sinopspor 1–2 Fatsa Belediyespor is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Küçükçekmece Sinopspor vs Fatsa Belediyespor?
Küçükçekmece Sinopspor 1.18, Fatsa Belediyespor 1.51 – over 2.5 at 49%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Küçükçekmece Sinopspor vs Fatsa Belediyespor?
Wednesday 11 November 2026, 12:00 WAT – 3. Lig Group 1.