- λ home
- 1.75
- λ away
- 0.82
- Σλ total
- 2.57
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.4%
Beykoz Anadolu vs Yalova Yeşilovaspor prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Beykoz Anadolu v Yalova Yeşilovaspor: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–5
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Beykoz Anadolu v Yalova Yeşilovaspor are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (11 and 19 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beykoz Anadolu (home) | 1.31 | 0.88 | 1.32 | 1.52 |
| Yalova Yeşilovaspor (away) | 1.26 | 1.14 | 1.04 | 1.50 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.31 × 0.88 × 1.32 ≈ 1.52
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.03 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.50 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.57 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.75, λaway = 0.82
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 59.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 17.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Beykoz Anadolu | 37.8% | 64.0% | 58.6% | 61.7% |
| X Draw | 25.2% | 15.0% | 24.1% | 18.8% |
| 2 Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 37.0% | 21.0% | 17.3% | 19.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Beykoz Anadolu | 61.7% | 1.62 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -6.2% | |
| X · Draw | 18.8% | 5.32 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -30.4% | |
| 2 · Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 19.4% | 5.14 | 5.15 | 19.4% | +0.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 80.6% | 1.24 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -13.0% | |
| X2 | 38.3% | 2.61 | 2.16 | 46.3% | -17.4% | |
| 12 | 81.2% | 1.23 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -4.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Beykoz Anadolu | 76.0% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 24.0% | 4.17 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.9% | 1.39 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -8.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.1% | 3.56 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -11.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48.1% | 2.08 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -9.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -7.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.3% | 3.67 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -14.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.7% | 1.37 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -7.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 52.9% | 1.89 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +1.1% | |
| BTTS no | 47.1% | 2.13 | 1.74 | 57.5% | -18.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.2% | 2.37 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.9% | 2.39 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.9% | 6.29 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.529 × 1.91 − 1 = +0.011 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.012 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.3% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Beykoz Anadolu | Yalova Yeşilovaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDWDLL | DWLDDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Beykoz Anadolu 62% to win. Standings: Beykoz Anadolu 16th on 11, Yalova Yeşilovaspor 14th on 13.
Form
Sequence for Beykoz Anadolu: D D W D L L, so one victory in six. Latest: 2–2 away at Silivrispor. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Sequence for Yalova Yeşilovaspor: D W L D D L, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Orduspor 1967. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Beykoz Anadolu 1.75 · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 0.82 · total 2.57. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 53%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 53%, odds 1.91 v fair 1.89. Most probable score: Beykoz Anadolu 2–1 Yalova Yeşilovaspor. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
3. Lig Group 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Fatsa Belediyespor | 11 | +12 | 24 |
| 2 |  Pazarspor | 11 | +6 | 19 |
| 3 |  Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 11 | +3 | 19 |
| 4 |  Düzcespor | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 |  Kartal Bulvarspor | 11 | +6 | 16 |
| 6 |  Amasyaspor 1968 | 11 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 |  Karabük İdman Yurdu | 11 | -2 | 15 |
| 8 |  İnkılapspor | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Karadeniz Ereğli BSK | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 |  Orduspor 1967 | 11 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 |  Galata | 11 | +1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Silivrispor | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 |  Zonguldak Kömürspor | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 14 |  Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Tokat Bld Plevnespor | 11 | -4 | 12 |
| 16 |  Beykoz Anadolu | 11 | -3 | 11 |
| 17 |  Gölcükspor | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 18 |  Beykoz İshaklıspor | 11 | -10 | 4 |
More 3. Lig Group 1 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Beykoz Anadolu vs Yalova Yeşilovaspor?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 53, priced around 1.91 by the bookmakers.
What are the Beykoz Anadolu v Yalova Yeşilovaspor probabilities?
Beykoz Anadolu win 62%, draw 19%, Yalova Yeşilovaspor win 19%.
What is the most probable score for Beykoz Anadolu vs Yalova Yeşilovaspor?
Beykoz Anadolu 2–1 Yalova Yeşilovaspor is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Beykoz Anadolu vs Yalova Yeşilovaspor?
Beykoz Anadolu 1.75, Yalova Yeşilovaspor 0.82 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is Beykoz Anadolu vs Yalova Yeşilovaspor?
Wednesday 11 November 2026, 13:00 WAT – 3. Lig Group 1.