- λ home
- 2.26
- λ away
- 1.01
- Σλ total
- 3.27
- P(over 2.5)
- 64%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.8%
Buchbach vs Greuther Fürth II prediction & xG model: Buchbach to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Buchbach v Greuther Fürth II: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBuchbach to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Buchbach v Greuther Fürth II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.18 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.35 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.27 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.26, λaway = 1.01
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 65.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.7%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Buchbach | – | 72.0% | 54.3% | 64.6% |
| X Draw | – | 19.0% | 22.8% | 20.6% |
| 2 Greuther Fürth II | – | 9.0% | 22.8% | 14.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Buchbach pick | 64.6% | 1.55 | 1.64 | 61.0% | +5.9% | |
| X · Draw | 20.6% | 4.85 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -19.6% | |
| 2 · Greuther Fürth II | 14.8% | 6.75 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -42.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.2% | 1.17 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -1.2% | |
| X2 | 35.4% | 2.82 | 1.96 | 51.0% | -30.6% | |
| 12 | 79.4% | 1.26 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -7.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Buchbach | 81.3% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Greuther Fürth II | 18.7% | 5.36 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.7% | 1.19 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -9.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.3% | 6.13 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -10.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64.3% | 1.56 | 1.39 | 71.9% | -10.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 35.7% | 2.80 | 2.59 | 38.6% | -7.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 43.4% | 2.30 | 2.02 | 49.5% | -12.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 56.6% | 1.77 | 1.68 | 59.5% | -4.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 62.0% | 1.61 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -11.9% | |
| BTTS no | 38.0% | 2.63 | 2.53 | 39.5% | -4.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 48.3% | 2.07 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.4% | 2.82 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.3% | 6.15 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.646 × 1.64 − 1 = +0.059 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.092 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Buchbach | Greuther Fürth II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLLDL | DLLDLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-2-4 | 0-3-3 |
| Points per match | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 3.00 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Buchbach at 65%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Buchbach 3rd on 29, Greuther Fürth II 18th on 14.
Form
Buchbach, last six: L D L L D L – zero wins in total. Latest: 3–4 away at TSV 1860 München. Per match: 1.3 scored, 3.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Greuther Fürth II: D L L D L D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 0–0 at home to Aubstadt. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.
Head to head
Last meeting (Feb 2026): Buchbach 0–0 Greuther Fürth II. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Buchbach 2.26 · Greuther Fürth II 1.01 · total 3.27. High total: over 2.5 64%, BTTS 62%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Buchbach to win, probability 65%, odds 1.64 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: Buchbach 2–1 Greuther Fürth II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 27 Feb 2026Buchbach0–0Greuther Fürth II
Regionalliga Bayern table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Memmingen | 18 | +13 | 39 |
| 2 |  TSV 1860 München | 17 | +14 | 33 |
| 3 |  Buchbach | 17 | +6 | 29 |
| 4 |  SpVgg Unterhaching | 17 | +6 | 28 |
| 5 |  Illertissen | 17 | +11 | 26 |
| 6 |  Bayreuth | 17 | +8 | 25 |
| 7 |  Augsburg II | 17 | -3 | 25 |
| 8 |  Bayern München II | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Nürnberg II | 17 | +5 | 24 |
| 10 |  Schwaben Augsburg | 17 | -6 | 24 |
| 11 |  Wacker Burghausen | 17 | +8 | 23 |
| 12 |  Vilzing | 16 | -2 | 21 |
| 13 |  Eichstätt | 17 | -7 | 21 |
| 14 |  FC Schweinfurt 05 | 17 | -10 | 20 |
| 15 |  Eltersdorf | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Ansbach | 17 | -16 | 16 |
| 17 |  Aubstadt | 17 | -5 | 15 |
| 18 |  Greuther Fürth II | 17 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Landsberg | 17 | -15 | 13 |
More Regionalliga Bayern predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Buchbach vs Greuther Fürth II?
The Model pick is Buchbach to win with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.64 by the bookmakers.
What are the Buchbach v Greuther Fürth II probabilities?
Buchbach win 65%, draw 21%, Greuther Fürth II win 15%.
What is the most probable score for Buchbach vs Greuther Fürth II?
Buchbach 2–1 Greuther Fürth II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Buchbach vs Greuther Fürth II?
Buchbach 2.26, Greuther Fürth II 1.01 – over 2.5 at 64%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Buchbach vs Greuther Fürth II?
Friday 13 November 2026, 19:00 WAT – Regionalliga Bayern.