Russia Second League A Fall Season Gold Sun 15 Nov 2026 · Stadion Spartak Full time

Novosibirsk

DLDDL

0–1

Half-time 0–1

Dinamo Vladivostok

LDWWW

37%P(1)27%P(X)36%P(2)

λ home: 1.18
λ away: 1.18
Σλ total: 2.36
P(over 2.5): 43%
P(BTTS): 52%
Modal score: 1–1 13.1%

Novosibirsk vs Dinamo Vladivostok prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Novosibirsk v Dinamo Vladivostok: how the Arena called it

Full time: 0–1
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

Takes

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Novosibirsk v Dinamo Vladivostok are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to league results (37 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Novosibirsk (home)	1.31	1.09	0.82	1.17
Dinamo Vladivostok (away)	1.05	1.07	1.06	1.19

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.31 × 1.09 × 0.82 ≈ 1.17

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.36	45%
Statistical xG feed	2.26	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.44	30%
Blended total λ	2.36	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.18, λ_away = 1.18

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Novosibirsk λ = 1.18

030.7%

136.3%

221.4%

38.4%

42.5%

5+0.7%

Dinamo Vladivostok λ = 1.18

030.8%

136.3%

221.4%

38.4%

42.5%

5+0.7%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Nov \ Din012345+

09.4116.62.60.8·

111137.73.00.9·

26.67.84.61.80.5·

32.63.11.80.7··

40.80.90.5···

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 36.1%
Σ draw cells: 27.9%
Σ away-win cells: 36.0%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 13.1%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Novosibirsk	34.7%	39.0%	38.8%	37.4%
X Draw	29.4%	18.0%	29.1%	26.6%
2 Dinamo Vladivostok	35.9%	43.0%	32.1%	36.0%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Novosibirsk	37.4%	2.67	2.32	43.1%	-13.1%
X · Draw	26.6%	3.76	3.10	32.3%	-17.5%
2 · Dinamo Vladivostok	36.0%	2.78	2.81	35.6%	+1.0%
Double chance
1X	64.0%	1.56	1.33	75.2%	-14.8%
X2	62.6%	1.60	1.46	68.5%	-8.7%
12	73.4%	1.36	1.26	79.4%	-7.5%
Draw no bet
DNB Novosibirsk	51.0%	1.96	–	–	–
DNB Dinamo Vladivostok	49.0%	2.04	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	68.4%	1.46	1.32	75.8%	-9.7%
Under 1.5	31.6%	3.17	2.88	34.7%	-9.0%
Over 2.5	43.0%	2.32	2.08	48.1%	-10.5%
Under 2.5	57.0%	1.76	1.64	61.0%	-6.6%
Over 3.5	22.4%	4.46	3.82	26.2%	-14.3%
Under 3.5	77.6%	1.29	1.18	84.7%	-8.5%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	52.5%	1.91	1.82	54.9%	-4.5%
BTTS no	47.5%	2.10	1.85	54.1%	-12.0%
Half-time
HT 1	27.2%	3.67	–	–	–
HT X	45.6%	2.19	–	–	–
HT 2	27.2%	3.68	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability52.5%

Fair odds1.91

Best odds1.82

EV per unit-4.5%

EV = 0.525 × 1.82 − 1 = -0.045 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Novosibirsk	Dinamo Vladivostok
Sequence	LDDLDD	WWWDLW
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	0-4-2	4-1-1
Points per match	0.67	2.17
Goals for / match	0.50	2.17
Goals against / match	1.50	1.00
Over 2.5	17%	83%
BTTS	50%	50%
Clean sheets	33%	50%
Failed to score	50%	0%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

No clear favourite in the grid – Novosibirsk 37%, draw 27%, Dinamo Vladivostok 36%. Standings: Novosibirsk 5th on 22, Dinamo Vladivostok 3rd on 24.

Form

Novosibirsk have zero wins from their last six (L D D L D D). Latest: 0–1 at home to Dinamo Vladivostok. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell.

Dinamo Vladivostok, last six: W W W D L W – four wins in total. Latest: 1–0 away at Novosibirsk. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Head to head

Last meeting (Jul 2026): Dinamo Vladivostok 1–2 Novosibirsk. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Novosibirsk 1.18 · Dinamo Vladivostok 1.18 · total 2.36. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 43%, BTTS 52%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 52%, odds 1.82 v fair 1.91. Most probable score: Novosibirsk 2–1 Dinamo Vladivostok. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.

Head-to-head

Every meeting →

19 Jul 2026Dinamo Vladivostok1–2Novosibirsk

Second League A Fall Season Gold table

League page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dinamo Kirov	17	10	4	3	+12	34
2	Rodina Moskva II	17	9	4	4	+8	31
3	Dinamo Vladivostok	17	6	6	5	+5	24
4	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	17	5	8	4	+3	23
5	Novosibirsk	17	5	7	5	-2	22
6	Mashuk-KMV	17	3	12	2	+3	21
7	FK Sokol Saratov	17	4	7	6	-6	19
8	Dinamo Bryansk	17	5	4	8	-10	19
9	Volgar Astrakhan	17	1	12	4	-4	15
10	Kaluga	17	1	8	8	-9	11