Russia Second League A Fall Season Gold Sun 15 Nov 2026 · Orbita stadium Full time

Kaluga

WLDLL

1–2

Half-time 0–0

FK Sokol Saratov

DWWWW

27%P(1)25%P(X)48%P(2)

λ home: 1.04
λ away: 1.19
Σλ total: 2.23
P(over 2.5): 42%
P(BTTS): 51%
Modal score: 1–1 13.3%

Kaluga vs FK Sokol Saratov prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Kaluga v FK Sokol Saratov: how the Arena called it

Full time: 1–2
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Kaluga v FK Sokol Saratov are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to league results (35 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Kaluga (home)	1.31	0.84	0.99	1.09
FK Sokol Saratov (away)	1.05	0.88	1.06	0.98

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.31 × 0.84 × 0.99 ≈ 1.09

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.07	45%
Statistical xG feed	2.21	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.49	30%
Blended total λ	2.23	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.04, λ_away = 1.19

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Kaluga λ = 1.04

035.4%

136.8%

219.1%

36.6%

41.7%

5+0.4%

FK Sokol Saratov λ = 1.19

030.3%

136.2%

221.6%

38.6%

42.6%

5+0.8%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Kal \ FK 012345+

011137.63.00.9·

111137.93.20.9·

25.86.94.11.6··

32.02.41.40.6··

40.50.6····

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 31.7%
Σ draw cells: 28.8%
Σ away-win cells: 39.5%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 13.3%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Kaluga	37.1%	19.0%	22.3%	26.7%
X Draw	31.8%	15.0%	24.6%	24.9%
2 FK Sokol Saratov	31.1%	66.0%	53.0%	48.4%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Kaluga	26.7%	3.75	4.04	24.8%	+7.8%
X · Draw	24.9%	4.02	3.66	27.3%	-8.9%
2 · FK Sokol Saratov	48.4%	2.06	1.70	58.8%	-17.7%
Double chance
1X	51.6%	1.94	1.79	55.9%	-7.7%
X2	73.3%	1.36	1.18	84.7%	-13.5%
12	75.1%	1.33	1.21	82.6%	-9.1%
Draw no bet
DNB Kaluga	35.5%	2.81	–	–	–
DNB FK Sokol Saratov	64.5%	1.55	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	67.4%	1.48	1.30	76.9%	-12.4%
Under 1.5	32.6%	3.07	2.97	33.7%	-3.2%
Over 2.5	42.0%	2.38	2.02	49.5%	-15.2%
Under 2.5 pick	58.0%	1.72	1.68	59.5%	-2.5%
Over 3.5	21.5%	4.64	3.72	26.9%	-19.9%
Under 3.5	78.5%	1.27	1.20	83.3%	-5.8%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	50.8%	1.97	1.86	53.8%	-5.6%
BTTS no	49.2%	2.03	1.81	55.2%	-10.9%
Half-time
HT 1	24.2%	4.14	–	–	–
HT X	47.0%	2.13	–	–	–
HT 2	28.8%	3.47	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickUnder 2.5 goals

Probability58.0%

Fair odds1.72

Best odds1.68

EV per unit-2.5%

EV = 0.580 × 1.68 − 1 = -0.025 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Kaluga	FK Sokol Saratov
Sequence	LLDLWL	WWWWDL
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	1-1-4	4-1-1
Points per match	0.67	2.17
Goals for / match	1.50	1.33
Goals against / match	1.83	0.67
Over 2.5	83%	50%
BTTS	83%	17%
Clean sheets	0%	67%
Failed to score	17%	33%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Marginal away preference, 48% against 27%. Standings: Kaluga 10th on 11, FK Sokol Saratov 7th on 19.

Form

Kaluga, last six: L L D L W L – one win in total. Latest: 1–2 at home to FK Sokol Saratov. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.

FK Sokol Saratov have four wins from their last six (W W W W D L). Latest: 2–1 away at Kaluga. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.

Head to head

Last meeting (Jul 2026): FK Sokol Saratov 1–1 Kaluga. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Kaluga 1.04 · FK Sokol Saratov 1.19 · total 2.23. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 42%, BTTS 51%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 58%, odds 1.68 v fair 1.72. Most probable score: Kaluga 0–1 FK Sokol Saratov. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.

Head-to-head

Every meeting →

19 Jul 2026FK Sokol Saratov1–1Kaluga

Second League A Fall Season Gold table

League page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dinamo Kirov	17	10	4	3	+12	34
2	Rodina Moskva II	17	9	4	4	+8	31
3	Dinamo Vladivostok	17	6	6	5	+5	24
4	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	17	5	8	4	+3	23
5	Novosibirsk	17	5	7	5	-2	22
6	Mashuk-KMV	17	3	12	2	+3	21
7	FK Sokol Saratov	17	4	7	6	-6	19
8	Dinamo Bryansk	17	5	4	8	-10	19
9	Volgar Astrakhan	17	1	12	4	-4	15
10	Kaluga	17	1	8	8	-9	11