- λ home
- 2.44
- λ away
- 1.27
- Σλ total
- 3.71
- P(over 2.5)
- 66%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.2%
Ganshoren vs Richelle United prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Ganshoren 63% · draw 20% · Richelle United 17%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Ganshoren v Richelle United: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Ganshoren v Richelle United are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (13 and 13 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ganshoren (home) | 1.79 | 1.26 | 1.17 | 2.65 |
| Richelle United (away) | 1.51 | 1.01 | 0.95 | 1.44 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.79 × 1.26 × 1.17 ≈ 2.65
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.09 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.79 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.09 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.71 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.44, λaway = 1.27
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 63.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 18.6%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ganshoren | 63.0% | 73.0% | 58.2% | 63.3% |
| X Draw | 18.0% | 19.0% | 22.0% | 19.9% |
| 2 Richelle United | 19.0% | 8.0% | 19.8% | 16.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Ganshoren | 63.3% | 1.58 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -3.1% | |
| X · Draw | 19.9% | 5.02 | 4.05 | 24.7% | -19.3% | |
| 2 · Richelle United | 16.8% | 5.97 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -24.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.2% | 1.20 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -7.6% | |
| X2 | 36.7% | 2.73 | 2.14 | 46.7% | -21.5% | |
| 12 | 80.1% | 1.25 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -8.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Ganshoren | 79.1% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Richelle United | 20.9% | 4.78 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 84.2% | 1.19 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -4.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 15.8% | 6.34 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -29.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65.6% | 1.52 | 1.54 | 64.9% | +1.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 34.4% | 2.91 | 2.27 | 44.1% | -22.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 44.7% | 2.24 | 2.35 | 42.6% | +5.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 55.3% | 1.81 | 1.47 | 68.0% | -18.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.58 | 63.3% | +3.4% | |
| BTTS no | 34.5% | 2.90 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -25.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 47.7% | 2.09 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 33.2% | 3.01 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.1% | 5.24 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.655 × 1.58 − 1 = +0.034 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.059 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.5% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Ganshoren | Richelle United |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWLLL | LLWLDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Ganshoren 63% to win. Standings: Ganshoren 3rd on 22, Richelle United 14th on 14.
Form
Ganshoren, last six: W W W L L L – three wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Acren-Lessines. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Richelle United, last six: L L W L D D – one win in total. Latest: 0–2 at home to Entité Manageoise. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Ganshoren 2.44 · Richelle United 1.27 · total 3.71. Goals expected – 66% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 65%, odds 1.58 v fair 1.53. Most probable score: Ganshoren 2–1 Richelle United. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Second Amateur Division ACFF table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Crossing Schaerbeek | 12 | +20 | 26 |
| 2 |  SG-Tertre-Hautrage | 12 | +11 | 24 |
| 3 |  Ganshoren | 12 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 |  Stade Mouscronnois | 12 | +5 | 21 |
| 5 |  AS Eupen II | 12 | +5 | 21 |
| 6 |  Jette | 12 | +4 | 21 |
| 7 |  Braine | 12 | +1 | 20 |
| 8 |  Huy | 12 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 |  Ostiches | 12 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 |  La Calamine | 12 | +3 | 16 |
| 11 |  RUS Binche | 12 | -4 | 16 |
| 12 |  Stade Verviers | 12 | +2 | 15 |
| 13 |  Acren-Lessines | 12 | +1 | 14 |
| 14 |  Richelle United | 12 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 |  Stockay-Warfusée | 12 | -5 | 13 |
| 16 |  Entité Manageoise | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 |  Aywaille | 12 | -16 | 7 |
| 18 |  Union Namur | 12 | -23 | 5 |
More Second Amateur Division ACFF predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Ganshoren vs Richelle United?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.58 by the bookmakers.
What are the Ganshoren v Richelle United probabilities?
Ganshoren win 63%, draw 20%, Richelle United win 17%.
What is the most probable score for Ganshoren vs Richelle United?
Ganshoren 2–1 Richelle United is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Ganshoren vs Richelle United?
Ganshoren 2.44, Richelle United 1.27 – over 2.5 at 66%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is Ganshoren vs Richelle United?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 15:00 WAT – Second Amateur Division ACFF.