- λ home
- 2.20
- λ away
- 0.99
- Σλ total
- 3.19
- P(over 2.5)
- 61%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 2–0 10.0%
RUS Binche vs Union Namur prediction & xG model: RUS Binche to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: RUS Binche 65% · draw 19% · Union Namur 16%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
RUS Binche v Union Namur: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for RUS Binche v Union Namur are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.29 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.10 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.19 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.20, λaway = 0.99
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 64.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.8%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 10.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 RUS Binche | – | 71.0% | 57.2% | 65.2% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 22.6% | 18.8% |
| 2 Union Namur | – | 13.0% | 20.3% | 16.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · RUS Binche pick | 65.2% | 1.53 | 1.56 | 64.1% | +1.7% | |
| X · Draw | 18.8% | 5.33 | 3.95 | 25.3% | -25.9% | |
| 2 · Union Namur | 16.1% | 6.23 | 4.40 | 22.7% | -29.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.9% | 1.19 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -6.0% | |
| X2 | 34.8% | 2.87 | 2.09 | 47.8% | -27.2% | |
| 12 | 81.2% | 1.23 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -6.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB RUS Binche | 80.2% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Union Namur | 19.8% | 5.06 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.1% | 1.23 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -7.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.9% | 5.30 | 4.45 | 22.5% | -16.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.65 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -7.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 39.2% | 2.55 | 2.28 | 43.9% | -10.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 39.1% | 2.56 | 2.33 | 42.9% | -8.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -9.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 61.6% | 1.62 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -3.4% | |
| BTTS no | 38.4% | 2.60 | 2.16 | 46.3% | -17.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 47.7% | 2.10 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.1% | 2.77 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.2% | 6.18 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.652 × 1.56 − 1 = +0.017 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.030 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.8% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | RUS Binche | Union Namur |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWDLDW | LDLLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 0-1-5 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 0.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
RUS Binche at 65%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: RUS Binche 11th on 16, Union Namur 18th on 5.
Form
RUS Binche, last six: L W D L D W – two wins in total. Latest: 0–2 away at Braine. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Union Namur, last six: L D L L L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–3 at home to AS Eupen II. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG RUS Binche 2.20 · Union Namur 0.99 · total 3.19. High total: over 2.5 61%, BTTS 62%.
Model selection
Selection: RUS Binche to win, probability 65%, odds 1.56 v fair 1.53. Most probable score: RUS Binche 2–0 Union Namur. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Second Amateur Division ACFF table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Crossing Schaerbeek | 12 | +20 | 26 |
| 2 |  SG-Tertre-Hautrage | 12 | +11 | 24 |
| 3 |  Ganshoren | 12 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 |  Stade Mouscronnois | 12 | +5 | 21 |
| 5 |  AS Eupen II | 12 | +5 | 21 |
| 6 |  Jette | 12 | +4 | 21 |
| 7 |  Braine | 12 | +1 | 20 |
| 8 |  Huy | 12 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 |  Ostiches | 12 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 |  La Calamine | 12 | +3 | 16 |
| 11 |  RUS Binche | 12 | -4 | 16 |
| 12 |  Stade Verviers | 12 | +2 | 15 |
| 13 |  Acren-Lessines | 12 | +1 | 14 |
| 14 |  Richelle United | 12 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 |  Stockay-Warfusée | 12 | -5 | 13 |
| 16 |  Entité Manageoise | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 |  Aywaille | 12 | -16 | 7 |
| 18 |  Union Namur | 12 | -23 | 5 |
More Second Amateur Division ACFF predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for RUS Binche vs Union Namur?
The Model pick is RUS Binche to win with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.56 by the bookmakers.
What are the RUS Binche v Union Namur probabilities?
RUS Binche win 65%, draw 19%, Union Namur win 16%.
What is the most probable score for RUS Binche vs Union Namur?
RUS Binche 2–0 Union Namur is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for RUS Binche vs Union Namur?
RUS Binche 2.20, Union Namur 0.99 – over 2.5 at 61%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is RUS Binche vs Union Namur?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 15:00 WAT – Second Amateur Division ACFF.