Belgium First Amateur Division Sun 15 Nov 2026 Live 49'

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II

DWDDD

0–0

Half-time 0–0

Merelbeke

LWDLW

51%P(1)23%P(X)26%P(2)

λ home: 1.85
λ away: 1.44
Σλ total: 3.30
P(over 2.5): 65%
P(BTTS): 64%
Modal score: 1–1 9.9%

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II vs Merelbeke prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Live model

In-play probabilities

The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.

0–0

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II–

Draw–

Merelbeke–

Over 2.5–

Both score–

Next goal: home / none / away–

Pre-match: Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 51% · draw 23% · Merelbeke 26%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.

● Live thread

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II v Merelbeke: what are you seeing?

49′: 0–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

Arena tipBoth teams to score64% chance · @1.40

Live thread

No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.

Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.

Model sheet

How the numbers for Oud-Heverlee Leuven II v Merelbeke are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to league results (18 and 18 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II (home)	1.62	1.21	0.88	1.72
Merelbeke (away)	1.44	0.95	1.12	1.53

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.62 × 1.21 × 0.88 ≈ 1.72

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	3.25	45%
Statistical xG feed	3.27	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.40	30%
Blended total λ	3.30	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.85, λ_away = 1.44

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II λ = 1.85

015.7%

129.0%

226.9%

316.6%

47.7%

5+4.0%

Merelbeke λ = 1.44

023.6%

134.1%

224.6%

311.9%

44.3%

5+1.6%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Oud \ Mer012345+

03.75.33.91.90.7·

16.89.97.13.41.2·

26.39.26.63.21.2·

33.95.74.12.00.7·

41.82.61.90.9··

5+1.01.41.0···

Σ home-win cells: 47.3%
Σ draw cells: 22.6%
Σ away-win cells: 30.2%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 9.9%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	42.0%	61.0%	53.7%	51.3%
X Draw	24.1%	22.0%	22.9%	23.1%
2 Merelbeke	33.9%	17.0%	23.5%	25.6%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	51.3%	1.95	1.66	60.2%	-14.8%
X · Draw	23.1%	4.33	3.90	25.6%	-10.0%
2 · Merelbeke	25.6%	3.91	3.80	26.3%	-2.8%
Double chance
1X	74.4%	1.34	1.16	86.2%	-13.7%
X2	48.7%	2.05	1.93	51.8%	-6.1%
12	76.9%	1.30	1.16	86.2%	-10.8%
Draw no bet
DNB Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	66.7%	1.50	–	–	–
DNB Merelbeke	33.3%	3.01	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	84.1%	1.19	–	–	–
Under 1.5	15.9%	6.30	–	–	–
Over 2.5	65.0%	1.54	1.37	73.0%	-10.9%
Under 2.5	35.0%	2.86	2.66	37.6%	-6.9%
Over 3.5	44.1%	2.27	1.98	50.5%	-12.6%
Under 3.5	55.9%	1.79	1.71	58.5%	-4.5%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	64.5%	1.55	1.40	71.4%	-9.7%
BTTS no	35.5%	2.82	2.60	38.5%	-7.7%
Half-time
HT 1	36.7%	2.72	–	–	–
HT X	37.3%	2.68	–	–	–
HT 2	26.1%	3.84	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability64.5%

Fair odds1.55

Best odds1.40

EV per unit-9.7%

EV = 0.645 × 1.40 − 1 = -0.097 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	Merelbeke
Sequence	DDDWDL	WLDWLD
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	1-4-1	2-2-2
Points per match	1.17	1.33
Goals for / match	1.83	1.00
Goals against / match	1.50	1.33
Over 2.5	67%	50%
BTTS	67%	33%
Clean sheets	33%	33%
Failed to score	33%	50%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II ahead at 51%, against 26% for Merelbeke and 23% for the draw.

Form

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II have one win from their last six (D D D W D L). Latest: 0–0 away at Roeselare Daisel. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded.

Merelbeke have two wins from their last six (W L D W L D). Latest: 2–1 at home to Heist. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded.

Head to head

Last meeting (Apr 2026): Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 1–3 Merelbeke. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 1.85 · Merelbeke 1.44 · total 3.30. Goals expected – 65% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.

Model selection

Selection: Both teams to score, probability 64%, odds 1.40 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 2–1 Merelbeke. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.