Belgium First Amateur Division Sun 15 Nov 2026 Full time

Cercle Brugge II

WDLDL

1–1

Half-time 1–0

Houtvenne

WWDLL

26%P(1)21%P(X)54%P(2)

λ home: 1.39
λ away: 2.10
Σλ total: 3.48
P(over 2.5): 66%
P(BTTS): 68%
Modal score: 1–2 9.4%

Cercle Brugge II vs Houtvenne prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Cercle Brugge II v Houtvenne: how the Arena called it

Full time: 1–1
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

Takes

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Cercle Brugge II v Houtvenne are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 14 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Cercle Brugge II (home)	1.62	0.97	0.89	1.40
Houtvenne (away)	1.44	1.10	1.35	2.12

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.62 × 0.97 × 0.89 ≈ 1.40

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	3.52	45%
Statistical xG feed	3.64	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.30	30%
Blended total λ	3.48	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.39, λ_away = 2.10

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Cercle Brugge II λ = 1.39

025.0%

134.6%

224.0%

311.1%

43.9%

5+1.4%

Houtvenne λ = 2.10

012.3%

125.8%

227.0%

318.9%

49.9%

5+6.2%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Cer \ Hou012345+

03.16.46.74.72.51.5

14.38.99.46.53.42.1

23.06.26.54.52.41.5

31.42.93.02.11.10.7

4·1.01.00.7··

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 25.2%
Σ draw cells: 21.1%
Σ away-win cells: 53.8%
Most probable score: 1–2 · 9.4%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Cercle Brugge II	24.7%	24.0%	27.3%	25.7%
X Draw	21.7%	12.0%	24.2%	20.5%
2 Houtvenne	53.6%	64.0%	48.4%	53.8%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Cercle Brugge II	25.7%	3.90	3.26	30.7%	-16.4%
X · Draw	20.5%	4.88	3.68	27.2%	-24.6%
2 · Houtvenne	53.8%	1.86	1.84	54.3%	-0.9%
Double chance
1X	46.2%	2.17	1.74	57.5%	-19.7%
X2	74.3%	1.35	1.23	81.3%	-8.6%
12	79.5%	1.26	1.18	84.7%	-6.2%
Draw no bet
DNB Cercle Brugge II	32.3%	3.10	–	–	–
DNB Houtvenne	67.7%	1.48	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	86.2%	1.16	–	–	–
Under 1.5	13.8%	7.26	–	–	–
Over 2.5	65.9%	1.52	1.41	70.9%	-7.1%
Under 2.5	34.1%	2.93	2.52	39.7%	-14.0%
Over 3.5	44.8%	2.23	2.10	47.6%	-5.8%
Under 3.5	55.2%	1.81	1.63	61.3%	-10.1%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	67.6%	1.48	1.40	71.4%	-5.4%
BTTS no	32.4%	3.09	2.60	38.5%	-15.8%
Half-time
HT 1	23.2%	4.31	–	–	–
HT X	35.6%	2.81	–	–	–
HT 2	41.2%	2.43	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability67.6%

Fair odds1.48

Best odds1.40

EV per unit-5.4%

EV = 0.676 × 1.40 − 1 = -0.054 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Cercle Brugge II	Houtvenne
Sequence	LDLDWL	LLDWWL
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	1-2-3	2-1-3
Points per match	0.83	1.17
Goals for / match	1.67	0.83
Goals against / match	2.67	1.67
Over 2.5	100%	50%
BTTS	100%	33%
Clean sheets	0%	33%
Failed to score	0%	33%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Houtvenne narrowly ahead at 54%; Cercle Brugge II 26%.

Form

Cercle Brugge II, last six: L D L D W L – one win in total. Latest: 1–3 away at Mandel United. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.

Houtvenne, last six: L L D W W L – two wins in total. Latest: 1–2 at home to Thes Sport. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Cercle Brugge II 1.39 · Houtvenne 2.10 · total 3.48. Goals expected – 66% for over 2.5 and 68% for both teams to score.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 68%, odds 1.40 v fair 1.48. Most probable score: Cercle Brugge II 1–2 Houtvenne. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.