- λ home
- 1.25
- λ away
- 2.66
- Σλ total
- 3.91
- P(over 2.5)
- 74%
- P(BTTS)
- 68%
- Modal score
- 1–2 8.9%
Žďár nad Sázavou vs Kuřim prediction & xG model: Kuřim to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Žďár nad Sázavou v Kuřim: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipKuřim to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Žďár nad Sázavou v Kuřim are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (24 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Žďár nad Sázavou (home) | 2.06 | 0.84 | 0.68 | 1.17 |
| Kuřim (away) | 1.60 | 1.73 | 0.99 | 2.74 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 2.06 × 0.84 × 0.68 ≈ 1.17
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.91 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 4.11 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.75 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.91 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.25, λaway = 2.66
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 15.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 16.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 67.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 8.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Žďár nad Sázavou | 13.6% | 21.0% | 21.8% | 18.8% |
| X Draw | 16.4% | 9.0% | 21.3% | 16.7% |
| 2 Kuřim | 69.9% | 70.0% | 56.9% | 64.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Žďár nad Sázavou | 18.8% | 5.33 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -23.1% | |
| X · Draw | 16.7% | 5.97 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -29.7% | |
| 2 · Kuřim pick | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.57 | 63.7% | +1.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 35.5% | 2.82 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -23.6% | |
| X2 | 81.2% | 1.23 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -5.0% | |
| 12 | 83.3% | 1.20 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -2.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Žďár nad Sázavou | 22.5% | 4.44 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Kuřim | 77.5% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 90.2% | 1.11 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 9.8% | 10.17 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 73.6% | 1.36 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -4.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 26.4% | 3.79 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -10.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 45.1% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 68.2% | 1.47 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -1.8% | |
| BTTS no | 31.8% | 3.14 | 2.47 | 40.5% | -21.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 17.5% | 5.73 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 31.5% | 3.18 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 51.1% | 1.96 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.645 × 1.57 − 1 = +0.012 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.022 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.5% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Žďár nad Sázavou | Kuřim |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWDLL | WDWWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 5.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Kuřim 64%, Žďár nad Sázavou 19%. Standings: Žďár nad Sázavou 12th on 15, Kuřim 3rd on 29.
Form
Žďár nad Sázavou have two wins from their last six (W L W D L L). Latest: 3–0 away at Bedrichov. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Kuřim have five wins from their last six (W D W W W W). Latest: 4–0 at home to FS Třebíč. Scoring rate: 5.3 per match – well above average. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jun 2026): Žďár nad Sázavou 0–2 Kuřim. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Žďár nad Sázavou 1.25 · Kuřim 2.66 · total 3.91. Goals expected – 74% for over 2.5 and 68% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Kuřim to win, probability 64%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: Žďár nad Sázavou 1–2 Kuřim. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 13 Jun 2026Žďár nad Sázavou0–2Kuřim
4. Liga Divizie D table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tatran Bohunice | 14 | +18 | 30 |
| 2 |  Sparta Brno | 15 | +14 | 30 |
| 3 |  Kuřim | 14 | +38 | 29 |
| 4 |  Havlíčkův Brod | 15 | +12 | 26 |
| 5 |  Velká Bíteš | 15 | +7 | 26 |
| 6 |  FS Třebíč | 14 | -5 | 24 |
| 7 |  Sokol Tasovice | 14 | +6 | 21 |
| 8 |  Znojmo | 14 | +5 | 20 |
| 9 |  Pelhřimov | 14 | +1 | 18 |
| 10 |  Chotebor | 15 | -3 | 17 |
| 11 |  Bystrc Kníničky | 14 | -6 | 17 |
| 12 |  Žďár nad Sázavou | 14 | +3 | 15 |
| 13 |  Velké Meziříčí | 14 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 |  Humpolec | 14 | -9 | 13 |
| 15 |  Ždírec nad Doubravou | 15 | -13 | 12 |
| 16 |  Bedrichov | 15 | -54 | 2 |
More 4. Liga Divizie D predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Žďár nad Sázavou vs Kuřim?
The Model pick is Kuřim to win with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.57 by the bookmakers.
What are the Žďár nad Sázavou v Kuřim probabilities?
Žďár nad Sázavou win 19%, draw 17%, Kuřim win 64%.
What is the most probable score for Žďár nad Sázavou vs Kuřim?
Žďár nad Sázavou 1–2 Kuřim is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Žďár nad Sázavou vs Kuřim?
Žďár nad Sázavou 1.25, Kuřim 2.66 – over 2.5 at 74%, BTTS at 68%.
What time is Žďár nad Sázavou vs Kuřim?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – 4. Liga Divizie D.