- λ home
- 1.54
- λ away
- 1.66
- Σλ total
- 3.20
- P(over 2.5)
- 62%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.4%
Humpolec vs Pelhřimov prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Humpolec v Pelhřimov: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Humpolec v Pelhřimov are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (20 and 20 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Humpolec (home) | 2.06 | 0.68 | 1.09 | 1.53 |
| Pelhřimov (away) | 1.60 | 1.05 | 1.00 | 1.67 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 2.06 × 0.68 × 1.09 ≈ 1.53
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.20 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.21 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.20 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.20 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.54, λaway = 1.66
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 35.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 40.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Humpolec | 34.9% | 41.0% | 37.5% | 37.4% |
| X Draw | 24.3% | 11.0% | 24.9% | 21.5% |
| 2 Pelhřimov | 40.8% | 48.0% | 37.5% | 41.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.120 → 12.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Humpolec | 37.4% | 2.67 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -11.0% | |
| X · Draw | 21.5% | 4.65 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -23.0% | |
| 2 · Pelhřimov | 41.1% | 2.43 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -2.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 58.9% | 1.70 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -15.8% | |
| X2 | 62.6% | 1.60 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -10.5% | |
| 12 | 78.5% | 1.27 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -6.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Humpolec | 47.7% | 2.10 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Pelhřimov | 52.3% | 1.91 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 82.9% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 17.1% | 5.85 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 62.0% | 1.61 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -9.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 38.0% | 2.63 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -9.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40.7% | 2.46 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -10.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 59.3% | 1.69 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -6.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.7% | 1.73 | 1.41 | 70.9% | -18.6% | |
| BTTS no | 42.3% | 2.37 | 2.56 | 39.1% | +8.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.4% | 3.40 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.1% | 2.62 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.4% | 3.08 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.620 × 1.46 − 1 = -0.094 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Humpolec | Pelhřimov |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLDLW | DWLLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Humpolec 37%, draw 22%, Pelhřimov 41%. Standings: Humpolec 14th on 13, Pelhřimov 9th on 18.
Form
Humpolec, last six: W L L D L W – two wins in total. Latest: 1–0 away at Ždírec nad Doubravou. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.2 conceded.
Pelhřimov, last six: D W L L L L – one win in total. Latest: 0–0 at home to Znojmo. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.5 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Humpolec 1.54 · Pelhřimov 1.66 · total 3.20. Goals expected – 62% for over 2.5 and 58% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 62%, odds 1.46 v fair 1.61. Most probable score: Humpolec 1–2 Pelhřimov. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
4. Liga Divizie D table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tatran Bohunice | 14 | +18 | 30 |
| 2 |  Sparta Brno | 15 | +14 | 30 |
| 3 |  Kuřim | 14 | +38 | 29 |
| 4 |  Havlíčkův Brod | 15 | +12 | 26 |
| 5 |  Velká Bíteš | 15 | +7 | 26 |
| 6 |  FS Třebíč | 14 | -5 | 24 |
| 7 |  Sokol Tasovice | 14 | +6 | 21 |
| 8 |  Znojmo | 14 | +5 | 20 |
| 9 |  Pelhřimov | 14 | +1 | 18 |
| 10 |  Chotebor | 15 | -3 | 17 |
| 11 |  Bystrc Kníničky | 14 | -6 | 17 |
| 12 |  Žďár nad Sázavou | 14 | +3 | 15 |
| 13 |  Velké Meziříčí | 14 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 |  Humpolec | 14 | -9 | 13 |
| 15 |  Ždírec nad Doubravou | 15 | -13 | 12 |
| 16 |  Bedrichov | 15 | -54 | 2 |
More 4. Liga Divizie D predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Humpolec vs Pelhřimov?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.46 by the bookmakers.
What are the Humpolec v Pelhřimov probabilities?
Humpolec win 37%, draw 22%, Pelhřimov win 41%.
What is the most probable score for Humpolec vs Pelhřimov?
Humpolec 1–2 Pelhřimov is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Humpolec vs Pelhřimov?
Humpolec 1.54, Pelhřimov 1.66 – over 2.5 at 62%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Humpolec vs Pelhřimov?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – 4. Liga Divizie D.