- λ home
- 1.80
- λ away
- 1.43
- Σλ total
- 3.22
- P(over 2.5)
- 62%
- P(BTTS)
- 64%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.2%
Roskilde vs Nykobing FC prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Roskilde v Nykobing FC: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Roskilde v Nykobing FC are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (29 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roskilde (home) | 1.60 | 1.18 | 0.93 | 1.76 |
| Nykobing FC (away) | 1.34 | 1.39 | 0.77 | 1.43 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.60 × 1.18 × 0.93 ≈ 1.76
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.19 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.30 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.16 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.22 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.80, λaway = 1.43
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 46.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 30.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Roskilde | 44.7% | 52.0% | 39.0% | 46.5% |
| X Draw | 24.1% | 18.0% | 28.7% | 22.5% |
| 2 Nykobing FC | 31.1% | 30.0% | 32.3% | 31.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.106 → 10.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Roskilde | 46.5% | 2.15 | 2.32 | 43.1% | +8.0% | |
| X · Draw | 22.5% | 4.44 | 3.15 | 31.7% | -29.1% | |
| 2 · Nykobing FC | 31.0% | 3.23 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -13.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 69.0% | 1.45 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -8.2% | |
| X2 | 53.5% | 1.87 | 1.47 | 68.0% | -21.4% | |
| 12 | 77.5% | 1.29 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -3.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Roskilde | 60.0% | 1.67 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Nykobing FC | 40.0% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 82.0% | 1.22 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -8.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.0% | 5.55 | 4.70 | 21.3% | -15.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61.8% | 1.62 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -8.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 38.2% | 2.62 | 2.33 | 42.9% | -11.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 41.5% | 2.41 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -10.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 58.5% | 1.71 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -6.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 63.9% | 1.56 | 1.41 | 70.9% | -9.9% | |
| BTTS no | 36.1% | 2.77 | 2.66 | 37.6% | -4.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 35.9% | 2.78 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.8% | 2.64 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 26.3% | 3.81 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.639 × 1.41 − 1 = -0.099 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Roskilde | Nykobing FC |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLWDW | LWWWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 2.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Roskilde ahead at 47%, against 31% for Nykobing FC and 22% for the draw. Standings: Roskilde 1st on 32, Nykobing FC 2nd on 31.
Form
Roskilde, last six: W D L W D W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to HIK. 2.2 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Nykobing FC: L W W W L W, so four victories in six. Latest: 0–2 at home to Brabrand. Scoring rate: 2.3 per match – well above average.
Head to head
Last meeting (Aug 2026): Nykobing FC 2–2 Roskilde. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Roskilde 1.80 · Nykobing FC 1.43 · total 3.22. Goals expected – 62% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 64%, odds 1.41 v fair 1.56. Most probable score: Roskilde 2–1 Nykobing FC. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 28 Aug 2026Nykobing FC2–2Roskilde
2. Division table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Roskilde | 16 | +17 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nykobing FC | 16 | +18 | 31 |
| 3 |  B 93 | 16 | +5 | 24 |
| 4 |  Middelfart | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Fremad Amager | 16 | -5 | 22 |
| 6 |  Naestved | 15 | +2 | 21 |
| 7 |  Skive | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 8 |  VSK Århus | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 9 |  Brabrand | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 10 |  HIK | 16 | -10 | 18 |
| 11 |  FA 2000 | 15 | -14 | 12 |
| 12 |  Thisted FC | 16 | -17 | 10 |
More 2. Division predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Roskilde vs Nykobing FC?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.41 by the bookmakers.
What are the Roskilde v Nykobing FC probabilities?
Roskilde win 47%, draw 22%, Nykobing FC win 31%.
What is the most probable score for Roskilde vs Nykobing FC?
Roskilde 2–1 Nykobing FC is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Roskilde vs Nykobing FC?
Roskilde 1.80, Nykobing FC 1.43 – over 2.5 at 62%, BTTS at 64%.
What time is Roskilde vs Nykobing FC?
Friday 13 November 2026, 19:00 WAT – 2. Division.