- λ home
- 0.92
- λ away
- 2.07
- Σλ total
- 2.99
- P(over 2.5)
- 59%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 0–2 10.8%
HIK vs B 93 prediction & xG model: B 93 to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
HIK v B 93: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipB 93 to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for HIK v B 93 are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.83 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.12 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.99 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.92, λaway = 2.07
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 15.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 63.9%
- Most probable score
- 0–2 · 10.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 HIK | – | 10.0% | 20.9% | 14.6% |
| X Draw | – | 22.0% | 23.9% | 22.8% |
| 2 B 93 | – | 68.0% | 55.3% | 62.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.103 → 10.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · HIK | 14.6% | 6.86 | 4.34 | 23.0% | -36.8% | |
| X · Draw | 22.8% | 4.39 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -13.4% | |
| 2 · B 93 pick | 62.7% | 1.60 | 1.64 | 61.0% | +2.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 37.3% | 2.68 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -24.9% | |
| X2 | 85.4% | 1.17 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -3.5% | |
| 12 | 77.2% | 1.29 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -9.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB HIK | 18.9% | 5.30 | – | – | – | |
| DNB B 93 | 81.1% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.9% | 1.25 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -9.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.1% | 4.98 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -9.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -11.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 41.1% | 2.43 | 2.28 | 43.9% | -6.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.5% | 2.66 | 2.29 | 43.7% | -14.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -4.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 59.8% | 1.67 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -7.9% | |
| BTTS no | 40.2% | 2.49 | 2.29 | 43.7% | -7.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 15.8% | 6.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.7% | 2.65 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 46.4% | 2.15 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.627 × 1.64 − 1 = +0.027 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.043 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | HIK | B 93 |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWWDL | WWLLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
B 93 favoured on the road at 63% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: HIK 10th on 15, B 93 3rd on 24.
Form
HIK, last six: L L W W D L – two wins in total. Latest: 1–2 away at Roskilde. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded.
B 93 have four wins from their last six (W W L L W W). Latest: 1–0 at home to Skive. 2.2 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Aug 2026): B 93 3–0 HIK. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG HIK 0.92 · B 93 2.07 · total 2.99. High total: over 2.5 59%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: B 93 to win, probability 63%, odds 1.64 v fair 1.60. Most probable score: HIK 0–2 B 93. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 21 Aug 2026B 933–0HIK
2. Division table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nykobing FC | 15 | +19 | 31 |
| 2 |  Roskilde | 15 | +16 | 29 |
| 3 |  B 93 | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 4 |  Middelfart | 15 | +6 | 22 |
| 5 |  Skive | 15 | +2 | 21 |
| 6 |  Naestved | 15 | +2 | 21 |
| 7 |  Fremad Amager | 15 | -5 | 21 |
| 8 |  VSK Århus | 15 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  Brabrand | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 |  HIK | 15 | -11 | 15 |
| 11 |  FA 2000 | 15 | -14 | 12 |
| 12 |  Thisted FC | 15 | -18 | 7 |
More 2. Division predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for HIK vs B 93?
The Model pick is B 93 to win with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.64 by the bookmakers.
What are the HIK v B 93 probabilities?
HIK win 15%, draw 23%, B 93 win 63%.
What is the most probable score for HIK vs B 93?
HIK 0–2 B 93 is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for HIK vs B 93?
HIK 0.92, B 93 2.07 – over 2.5 at 59%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is HIK vs B 93?
Friday 13 November 2026, 19:00 WAT – 2. Division.