Bundesliga Sat 21 Nov 2026 · Deutsche Bank Park Upcoming

Eintracht Frankfurt

WLWWD

15:30

Saturday · WAT

1899 Hoffenheim

WDLDW

46%P(1)20%P(X)34%P(2)

λ home: 2.21
λ away: 1.65
Σλ total: 3.86
P(over 2.5): 72%
P(BTTS): 71%
Modal score: 2–1 8.5%

Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals

The Arena debate

Eintracht Frankfurt v 1899 Hoffenheim: who are you backing?

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Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off

Arena tipOver 2.5 goals72% chance · @1.36

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Eintracht Frankfurt v 1899 Hoffenheim are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to league results (15 and 12 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Eintracht Frankfurt (home)	2.05	1.02	1.17	2.45
1899 Hoffenheim (away)	1.32	1.05	1.16	1.61

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 2.05 × 1.02 × 1.17 ≈ 2.45

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	4.06	45%
Statistical xG feed	3.78	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.63	30%
Blended total λ	3.86	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 2.21, λ_away = 1.65

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Eintracht Frankfurt λ = 2.21

011.0%

124.3%

226.8%

319.7%

410.9%

5+7.3%

1899 Hoffenheim λ = 1.65

019.2%

131.7%

226.2%

314.4%

45.9%

5+2.7%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Ein \ 189012345+

02.13.52.91.60.7·

14.77.76.33.51.40.6

25.18.57.03.91.60.7

33.86.25.22.81.20.5

42.13.42.81.60.6·

5+1.42.31.91.1··

Σ home-win cells: 50.6%
Σ draw cells: 20.5%
Σ away-win cells: 29.0%
Most probable score: 2–1 · 8.5%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Eintracht Frankfurt	55.9%	43.0%	39.1%	45.8%
X Draw	19.6%	16.0%	23.4%	20.4%
2 1899 Hoffenheim	24.4%	41.0%	37.5%	33.8%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.067 → 6.7% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Eintracht Frankfurt	45.8%	2.18	2.40	41.7%	+10.0%
X · Draw	20.4%	4.91	4.00	25.0%	-18.5%
2 · 1899 Hoffenheim	33.8%	2.96	2.50	40.0%	-15.6%
Double chance
1X	66.2%	1.51	1.50	66.7%	-0.7%
X2	54.2%	1.85	1.53	65.4%	-17.1%
12	79.6%	1.26	1.22	82.0%	-2.9%
Draw no bet
DNB Eintracht Frankfurt	57.6%	1.74	–	–	–
DNB 1899 Hoffenheim	42.4%	2.36	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	88.1%	1.14	1.10	90.9%	-3.1%
Under 1.5	11.9%	8.40	7.00	14.3%	-16.6%
Over 2.5 pick	72.1%	1.39	1.36	73.5%	-1.9%
Under 2.5	27.9%	3.59	3.20	31.3%	-10.8%
Over 3.5	51.9%	1.93	1.91	52.4%	-0.8%
Under 3.5	48.1%	2.08	1.91	52.4%	-8.2%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	70.6%	1.42	1.33	75.2%	-6.1%
BTTS no	29.4%	3.41	3.25	30.8%	-4.6%
Half-time
HT 1	40.0%	2.50	–	–	–
HT X	33.7%	2.97	–	–	–
HT 2	26.3%	3.80	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickOver 2.5 goals

Probability72.1%

Fair odds1.39

Best odds1.36

EV per unit-1.9%

EV = 0.721 × 1.36 − 1 = -0.019 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Eintracht Frankfurt	1899 Hoffenheim
Sequence	DWWLWL	WDLDWW
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	3-1-2	3-2-1
Points per match	1.67	1.83
Goals for / match	1.50	1.67
Goals against / match	1.83	0.83
Over 2.5	67%	50%
BTTS	50%	50%
Clean sheets	17%	33%
Failed to score	33%	17%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Slight home preference: Eintracht Frankfurt 46%, draw 20%, 1899 Hoffenheim 34%. Standings: Eintracht Frankfurt 10th on 12, 1899 Hoffenheim 9th on 12.

Form

Eintracht Frankfurt have three wins from their last six (D W W L W L). Latest: 2–2 away at SC Paderborn 07. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded.

1899 Hoffenheim have three wins from their last six (W D L D W W). Latest: 2–1 at home to FC Schalke 04. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Eintracht Frankfurt 2.21 · 1899 Hoffenheim 1.65 · total 3.86. High total: over 2.5 72%, BTTS 71%.

Model selection

Selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 72%, odds 1.36 v fair 1.39. Most probable score: Eintracht Frankfurt 2–1 1899 Hoffenheim. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.

Head-to-head

Every meeting →

No previous meeting in our data.

Bundesliga table

League page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	+20	21
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	+9	21
3	SC Freiburg	9	6	1	2	+10	19
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	+14	18
5	Bayer Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	+3	16
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	+2	15
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	-1	13
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	0	12
9	1899 Hoffenheim	9	4	0	5	-1	12
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	-5	12
11	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	-10	12
12	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	-1	10
13	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	-3	10
14	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	0	9
15	1. FC Köln	9	2	3	4	-4	9
16	Union Berlin	9	1	4	4	-14	7
17	FC Schalke 04	9	1	3	5	-6	6
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	-13	4