- λ home
- 2.22
- λ away
- 0.96
- Σλ total
- 3.18
- P(over 2.5)
- 67%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 2–0 10.2%
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Bayer Leverkusen 67% · draw 20% · SC Paderborn 07 13%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Bayer Leverkusen v SC Paderborn 07: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Bayer Leverkusen v SC Paderborn 07 are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (11 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen (home) | 2.05 | 1.17 | 0.81 | 1.95 |
| SC Paderborn 07 (away) | 1.32 | 0.66 | 1.04 | 0.91 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 2.05 × 1.17 × 0.81 ≈ 1.95
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.86 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.11 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.73 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.18 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.22, λaway = 0.96
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 65.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.1%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 10.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Bayer Leverkusen | 60.8% | 63.0% | 75.0% | 67.3% |
| X Draw | 22.5% | 24.0% | 15.6% | 20.0% |
| 2 SC Paderborn 07 | 16.7% | 13.0% | 9.4% | 12.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.067 → 6.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Bayer Leverkusen | 67.3% | 1.49 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -15.9% | |
| X · Draw | 20.0% | 5.01 | 6.00 | 16.7% | +19.7% | |
| 2 · SC Paderborn 07 | 12.8% | 7.83 | 10.00 | 10.0% | +27.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.2% | 1.15 | 1.06 | 94.3% | -7.5% | |
| X2 | 32.7% | 3.06 | 3.75 | 26.7% | +22.7% | |
| 12 | 80.0% | 1.25 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -10.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Bayer Leverkusen | 84.0% | 1.19 | – | – | – | |
| DNB SC Paderborn 07 | 16.0% | 6.27 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 84.5% | 1.18 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -7.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 15.5% | 6.47 | 7.00 | 14.3% | +8.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 66.8% | 1.50 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -11.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 33.2% | 3.01 | 3.40 | 29.4% | +13.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 46.0% | 2.17 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -17.2% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 54.0% | 1.85 | 2.00 | 50.0% | +8.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 58.3% | 1.72 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -2.7% | |
| BTTS no | 41.7% | 2.40 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -12.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 48.4% | 2.07 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.0% | 2.78 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.7% | 6.39 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.540 × 2.00 − 1 = +0.080 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.080 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Bayer Leverkusen | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLWLW | DDLWDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Bayer Leverkusen 67% to win. Standings: Bayer Leverkusen 5th on 16, SC Paderborn 07 13th on 10.
Form
Sequence for Bayer Leverkusen: W L L W L W, so three victories in six. Latest: 2–1 away at 1. FC Köln. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Sequence for SC Paderborn 07: D D L W D L, so one victory in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Bayer Leverkusen 2.22 · SC Paderborn 07 0.96 · total 3.18. Goals expected – 67% for over 2.5 and 58% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 3.5 goals, probability 54%, odds 2.00 v fair 1.85. Most probable score: Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 SC Paderborn 07. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Bundesliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 9 | +20 | 21 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 9 | +9 | 21 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 9 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 9 | +14 | 18 |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  Werder Bremen | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 9 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 |  VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 9 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hamburger SV | 9 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 |  FC Augsburg | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 |  1. FC Köln | 9 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 9 | -14 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 9 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | -13 | 4 |
More Bundesliga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 54, priced around 2.00 by the bookmakers.
What are the Bayer Leverkusen v SC Paderborn 07 probabilities?
Bayer Leverkusen win 67%, draw 20%, SC Paderborn 07 win 13%.
What is the most probable score for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 SC Paderborn 07 is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Bayer Leverkusen 2.22, SC Paderborn 07 0.96 – over 2.5 at 67%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Saturday 21 November 2026, 15:30 WAT, at BayArena – Bundesliga.