- λ home
- 1.11
- λ away
- 1.90
- Σλ total
- 3.01
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.4%
Sevilla W vs Atletico Madrid W prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Sevilla W 25% · draw 16% · Atletico Madrid W 59%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Sevilla W v Atletico Madrid W: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Sevilla W v Atletico Madrid W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.05 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.98 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.01 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.11, λaway = 1.90
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 22.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 55.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sevilla W | – | 32.0% | 16.3% | 25.4% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 21.9% | 15.6% |
| 2 Atletico Madrid W | – | 57.0% | 61.8% | 59.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.115 → 11.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sevilla W | 25.4% | 3.94 | 5.50 | 18.2% | +39.7% | |
| X · Draw | 15.6% | 6.42 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -36.2% | |
| 2 · Atletico Madrid W | 59.0% | 1.69 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -14.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 41.0% | 2.44 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -5.8% | |
| X2 | 74.6% | 1.34 | 1.07 | 93.5% | -20.2% | |
| 12 | 84.4% | 1.18 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -3.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sevilla W | 30.1% | 3.32 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Atletico Madrid W | 69.9% | 1.43 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -4.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.7% | 4.82 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -10.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -5.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.5% | 2.35 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -6.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.5% | 2.82 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -7.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -7.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.2% | 1.95 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -7.9% | |
| BTTS no | 48.8% | 2.05 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -6.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 20.2% | 4.96 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.6% | 2.59 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 41.2% | 2.43 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.793 × 1.20 − 1 = -0.049 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sevilla W | Atletico Madrid W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLDDDL | WDWWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-4-2 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 2.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 59% against 25%. Standings: Sevilla W 13th on 10, Atletico Madrid W 3rd on 19.
Form
Sequence for Sevilla W: D L D D D L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 2–2 away at Edf Logrono W. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Sequence for Atletico Madrid W: W D W W W L, so four victories in six. Latest: 3–0 at home to FC Levante Badalona W. Scoring rate: 2.7 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Feb 2026): Sevilla W 2–1 Atletico Madrid W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sevilla W 1.11 · Atletico Madrid W 1.90 · total 3.01. High total: over 2.5 58%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Over 1.5 goals, probability 79%, odds 1.20 v fair 1.26. Most probable score: Sevilla W 1–2 Atletico Madrid W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 22 Feb 2026Sevilla W2–1Atletico Madrid W
Primera División Femenina table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona W | 10 | +36 | 27 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid W | 10 | +5 | 23 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid W | 10 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 |  Madrid CFF W | 10 | -5 | 17 |
| 5 |  Athletic Club W | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 |  Espanyol W | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 |  Granad. Tenerife W | 9 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 |  Real Sociedad W | 10 | -2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Eibar W | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 |  Deportivo de La Coruña W | 10 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 |  Granada | 10 | -7 | 11 |
| 12 |  Edf Logrono W | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 |  Sevilla W | 10 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 |  Deportivo Alavés W | 9 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 |  FC Levante Badalona W | 10 | -11 | 8 |
| 16 |  Valencia W | 10 | -11 | 6 |
More Primera División Femenina predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sevilla W vs Atletico Madrid W?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 79, priced around 1.20 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sevilla W v Atletico Madrid W probabilities?
Sevilla W win 25%, draw 16%, Atletico Madrid W win 59%.
What is the most probable score for Sevilla W vs Atletico Madrid W?
Sevilla W 1–2 Atletico Madrid W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sevilla W vs Atletico Madrid W?
Sevilla W 1.11, Atletico Madrid W 1.90 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Sevilla W vs Atletico Madrid W?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Estadio Jesus Navas – Primera División Femenina.