- λ home
- 1.41
- λ away
- 1.11
- Σλ total
- 2.52
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.6%
Real Sociedad W vs Athletic Club W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Real Sociedad W v Athletic Club W: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–4
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Real Sociedad W v Athletic Club W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (19 and 18 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad W (home) | 1.59 | 1.05 | 0.81 | 1.36 |
| Athletic Club W (away) | 1.39 | 0.88 | 0.86 | 1.06 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.59 × 1.05 × 0.81 ≈ 1.36
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.42 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.60 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.52 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.41, λaway = 1.11
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 43.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 29.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Real Sociedad W | 42.9% | 47.0% | 43.4% | 44.1% |
| X Draw | 28.5% | 17.0% | 27.0% | 25.2% |
| 2 Athletic Club W | 28.5% | 36.0% | 29.7% | 30.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.124 → 12.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Real Sociedad W | 44.1% | 2.27 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -9.7% | |
| X · Draw | 25.2% | 3.97 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -16.9% | |
| 2 · Athletic Club W | 30.7% | 3.25 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -7.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 69.3% | 1.44 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -11.3% | |
| X2 | 55.9% | 1.79 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -6.6% | |
| 12 | 74.8% | 1.34 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -6.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Real Sociedad W | 58.9% | 1.70 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Athletic Club W | 41.1% | 2.43 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.5% | 1.38 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -7.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.5% | 3.64 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -3.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.5% | 2.11 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -7.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.90 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -2.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.9% | 3.72 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -12.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -2.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 54.4% | 1.84 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -2.0% | |
| BTTS no | 45.6% | 2.19 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -12.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.4% | 3.08 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.7% | 2.29 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 23.8% | 4.19 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.544 × 1.80 − 1 = -0.020 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Real Sociedad W | Athletic Club W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDWDW | DLDWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-2-0 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 2.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Real Sociedad W ahead at 44%, against 31% for Athletic Club W and 25% for the draw. Standings: Real Sociedad W 8th on 13, Athletic Club W 6th on 16.
Form
Real Sociedad W, last six: W W D W D W – four wins in total. Latest: 2–0 away at Fenerbahce W. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded.
Sequence for Athletic Club W: D L D W D W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Real Madrid W. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Feb 2026): Athletic Club W 0–2 Real Sociedad W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Real Sociedad W 1.41 · Athletic Club W 1.11 · total 2.52. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 54%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.84. Most probable score: Real Sociedad W 2–1 Athletic Club W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 15 Feb 2026Athletic Club W0–2Real Sociedad W
Primera División Femenina table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona W | 10 | +36 | 27 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid W | 11 | +5 | 24 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid W | 10 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 |  Granad. Tenerife W | 10 | +2 | 17 |
| 5 |  Madrid CFF W | 10 | -5 | 17 |
| 6 |  Athletic Club W | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 |  Espanyol W | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 |  Real Sociedad W | 10 | -2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Eibar W | 11 | -4 | 12 |
| 10 |  Deportivo de La Coruña W | 10 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 |  Deportivo Alavés W | 10 | -6 | 11 |
| 12 |  Granada | 10 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 |  Edf Logrono W | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 |  Sevilla W | 10 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 |  FC Levante Badalona W | 11 | -11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Valencia W | 10 | -11 | 6 |
More Primera División Femenina predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Real Sociedad W vs Athletic Club W?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Real Sociedad W v Athletic Club W probabilities?
Real Sociedad W win 44%, draw 25%, Athletic Club W win 31%.
What is the most probable score for Real Sociedad W vs Athletic Club W?
Real Sociedad W 2–1 Athletic Club W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Real Sociedad W vs Athletic Club W?
Real Sociedad W 1.41, Athletic Club W 1.11 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Real Sociedad W vs Athletic Club W?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:00 WAT, at Instalaciones de Zubieta – Primera División Femenina.