- λ home
- 1.95
- λ away
- 0.73
- Σλ total
- 2.67
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.4%
Deportivo de La Coruña W vs Valencia W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Deportivo de La Coruña W v Valencia W: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Deportivo de La Coruña W v Valencia W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (18 and 10 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo de La Coruña W (home) | 1.59 | 0.80 | 1.14 | 1.44 |
| Valencia W (away) | 1.39 | 0.74 | 1.00 | 1.03 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.59 × 0.80 × 1.14 ≈ 1.44
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.47 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.61 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.73 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.67 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.95, λaway = 0.73
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 66.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Deportivo de La Coruña W | 45.8% | 69.0% | 59.8% | 65.1% |
| X Draw | 27.8% | 22.0% | 23.9% | 22.8% |
| 2 Valencia W | 26.4% | 9.0% | 16.3% | 12.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.115 → 11.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Deportivo de La Coruña W | 65.1% | 1.54 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -2.3% | |
| X · Draw | 22.8% | 4.39 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -14.5% | |
| 2 · Valencia W | 12.1% | 8.29 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -33.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.9% | 1.14 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -3.3% | |
| X2 | 34.9% | 2.87 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -19.8% | |
| 12 | 77.2% | 1.30 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -7.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Deportivo de La Coruña W | 84.4% | 1.19 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Valencia W | 15.6% | 6.40 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.8% | 1.34 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -6.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.2% | 3.97 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -5.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -6.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.3% | 2.03 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -3.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 28.5% | 3.50 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -7.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 71.5% | 1.40 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -4.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 55.6% | 1.80 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +6.2% | |
| BTTS no | 44.4% | 2.25 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -20.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.9% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.9% | 2.51 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.2% | 7.57 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.556 × 1.91 − 1 = +0.062 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.068 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.7% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Deportivo de La Coruña W | Valencia W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWLDW | WLLLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Deportivo de La Coruña W 65% to win. Standings: Deportivo de La Coruña W 10th on 11, Valencia W 16th on 6.
Form
Sequence for Deportivo de La Coruña W: L W W L D W, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–2 away at Madrid CFF W. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Sequence for Valencia W: W L L L L L, so one victory in six. Latest: 2–1 at home to Eibar W. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Deportivo de La Coruña W 1.95 · Valencia W 0.73 · total 2.67. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 56%, odds 1.91 v fair 1.80. Most probable score: Deportivo de La Coruña W 2–1 Valencia W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Primera División Femenina table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona W | 10 | +36 | 27 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid W | 11 | +5 | 24 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid W | 10 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 |  Granad. Tenerife W | 10 | +2 | 17 |
| 5 |  Madrid CFF W | 10 | -5 | 17 |
| 6 |  Athletic Club W | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 |  Espanyol W | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 |  Real Sociedad W | 10 | -2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Eibar W | 11 | -4 | 12 |
| 10 |  Deportivo de La Coruña W | 10 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 |  Deportivo Alavés W | 10 | -6 | 11 |
| 12 |  Granada | 10 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 |  Edf Logrono W | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 |  Sevilla W | 10 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 |  FC Levante Badalona W | 11 | -11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Valencia W | 10 | -11 | 6 |
More Primera División Femenina predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Deportivo de La Coruña W vs Valencia W?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.91 by the bookmakers.
What are the Deportivo de La Coruña W v Valencia W probabilities?
Deportivo de La Coruña W win 65%, draw 23%, Valencia W win 12%.
What is the most probable score for Deportivo de La Coruña W vs Valencia W?
Deportivo de La Coruña W 2–1 Valencia W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Deportivo de La Coruña W vs Valencia W?
Deportivo de La Coruña W 1.95, Valencia W 0.73 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Deportivo de La Coruña W vs Valencia W?
Monday 9 November 2026, 21:00 WAT, at Estadio Municipal de Riazor – Primera División Femenina.