- λ home
- 2.40
- λ away
- 0.76
- Σλ total
- 3.16
- P(over 2.5)
- 61%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 2–0 12.2%
Atletico Madrid W vs FC Levante Badalona W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Atletico Madrid W v FC Levante Badalona W: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Atletico Madrid W v FC Levante Badalona W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (19 and 22 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid W (home) | 1.59 | 1.34 | 1.26 | 2.69 |
| FC Levante Badalona W (away) | 1.39 | 0.88 | 0.80 | 0.98 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.59 × 1.34 × 1.26 ≈ 2.69
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.66 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.17 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.15 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.16 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.40, λaway = 0.76
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 73.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 16.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 9.9%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 12.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Atletico Madrid W | 73.0% | 72.0% | 73.7% | 72.7% |
| X Draw | 15.9% | 20.0% | 16.3% | 18.5% |
| 2 FC Levante Badalona W | 11.1% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 8.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.113 → 11.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Atletico Madrid W | 72.7% | 1.38 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -11.3% | |
| X · Draw | 18.5% | 5.42 | 5.50 | 18.2% | +1.5% | |
| 2 · FC Levante Badalona W | 8.8% | 11.32 | 9.00 | 11.1% | -20.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 91.2% | 1.10 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -6.1% | |
| X2 | 27.3% | 3.66 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -1.7% | |
| 12 | 81.5% | 1.23 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -10.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Atletico Madrid W | 89.2% | 1.12 | – | – | – | |
| DNB FC Levante Badalona W | 10.8% | 9.23 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.8% | 1.24 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -5.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.2% | 5.22 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -13.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61.0% | 1.64 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -6.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 39.0% | 2.56 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -7.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 39.9% | 2.50 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -10.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 60.1% | 1.67 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -5.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 56.9% | 1.76 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +8.8% | |
| BTTS no | 43.1% | 2.32 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -22.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 53.9% | 1.86 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.5% | 2.90 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 11.6% | 8.61 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.569 × 1.91 − 1 = +0.088 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.096 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Atletico Madrid W | FC Levante Badalona W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWWWLW | LLLDLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 0-2-4 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 83% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Atletico Madrid W at 73%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Atletico Madrid W 3rd on 19, FC Levante Badalona W 15th on 9.
Form
Atletico Madrid W have four wins from their last six (D W W W L W). Latest: 1–1 away at Granada. 2.3 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
FC Levante Badalona W, last six: L L L D L D – zero wins in total. Latest: 0–4 at home to Barcelona W. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): FC Levante Badalona 2–4 Atletico Madrid W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Atletico Madrid W 2.40 · FC Levante Badalona W 0.76 · total 3.16. High total: over 2.5 61%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 57%, odds 1.91 v fair 1.76. Most probable score: Atletico Madrid W 2–1 FC Levante Badalona W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 25 Apr 2026FC Levante Badalona2–4Atletico Madrid W
Primera División Femenina table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona W | 10 | +36 | 27 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid W | 11 | +5 | 24 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid W | 10 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 |  Granad. Tenerife W | 10 | +2 | 17 |
| 5 |  Madrid CFF W | 10 | -5 | 17 |
| 6 |  Athletic Club W | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 |  Espanyol W | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 |  Real Sociedad W | 10 | -2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Eibar W | 11 | -4 | 12 |
| 10 |  Deportivo de La Coruña W | 10 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 |  Deportivo Alavés W | 10 | -6 | 11 |
| 12 |  Granada | 10 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 |  Edf Logrono W | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 |  Sevilla W | 10 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 |  FC Levante Badalona W | 11 | -11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Valencia W | 10 | -11 | 6 |
More Primera División Femenina predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Atletico Madrid W vs FC Levante Badalona W?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.91 by the bookmakers.
What are the Atletico Madrid W v FC Levante Badalona W probabilities?
Atletico Madrid W win 73%, draw 18%, FC Levante Badalona W win 9%.
What is the most probable score for Atletico Madrid W vs FC Levante Badalona W?
Atletico Madrid W 2–1 FC Levante Badalona W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Atletico Madrid W vs FC Levante Badalona W?
Atletico Madrid W 2.40, FC Levante Badalona W 0.76 – over 2.5 at 61%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Atletico Madrid W vs FC Levante Badalona W?
Monday 9 November 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Centro Deportivo Alcala de Henares – Primera División Femenina.