- λ home
- 0.97
- λ away
- 1.99
- Σλ total
- 2.96
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 0–1 10.3%
Real Jaén vs Zaragoza prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Real Jaén 18% · draw 21% · Zaragoza 61%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Real Jaén v Zaragoza: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Real Jaén v Zaragoza are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.05 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.89 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.96 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.97, λaway = 1.99
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 17.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 61.1%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 10.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Real Jaén | – | 14.0% | 23.3% | 17.9% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 26.1% | 20.8% |
| 2 Zaragoza | – | 69.0% | 50.6% | 61.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.129 → 12.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Real Jaén | 17.9% | 5.58 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -31.9% | |
| X · Draw | 20.8% | 4.81 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -29.3% | |
| 2 · Zaragoza | 61.3% | 1.63 | 1.75 | 57.1% | +7.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 38.7% | 2.58 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -26.1% | |
| X2 | 82.1% | 1.22 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -3.1% | |
| 12 | 79.2% | 1.26 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -1.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Real Jaén | 22.6% | 4.42 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Zaragoza | 77.4% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 78.1% | 1.28 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -4.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.9% | 4.56 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -12.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56.1% | 1.78 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -4.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 43.9% | 2.28 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -7.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.0% | 2.86 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -8.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -6.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -1.8% | |
| BTTS no | 41.2% | 2.43 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -13.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 17.2% | 5.83 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.3% | 2.61 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 44.5% | 2.25 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.781 × 1.22 − 1 = -0.047 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Real Jaén | Zaragoza |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWDWD | WDWWDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 3-3-0 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Zaragoza favoured on the road at 61% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Real Jaén 4th on 19, Zaragoza 1st on 24.
Form
Real Jaén, last six: W L W D W D – three wins in total. Latest: 2–1 away at Mijas Las Lagunas. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average.
Zaragoza, last six: W D W W D D – three wins in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to Huesca. 2.2 goals a match in that spell. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Real Jaén 0.97 · Zaragoza 1.99 · total 2.96. High total: over 2.5 56%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection
Selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 78%, odds 1.22 v fair 1.28. Most probable score: Real Jaén 0–2 Zaragoza. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Primera División RFEF Group 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zaragoza | 11 | +9 | 24 |
| 2 |  Villarreal II | 11 | +11 | 22 |
| 3 |  Real Murcia | 11 | +4 | 20 |
| 4 |  Real Jaén | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 |  Alcorcon | 11 | +9 | 18 |
| 6 |  Ibiza | 11 | +4 | 18 |
| 7 |  Hércules | 11 | -1 | 17 |
| 8 |  FC Cartagena | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 9 |  Real Madrid II | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 10 |  Huesca | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 |  Gimnastic | 11 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 |  Antequera | 11 | +2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Algeciras | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 |  Sant Andreu | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 15 |  Atlético Madrid II | 11 | +1 | 11 |
| 16 |  Europa Fc | 11 | -11 | 10 |
| 17 |  Águilas | 11 | -6 | 9 |
| 18 |  Juventud Torremolinos | 11 | -9 | 8 |
| 19 |  Rayo Majadahonda | 11 | -7 | 7 |
| 20 |  Teruel | 11 | -13 | 7 |
More Primera División RFEF Group 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Real Jaén vs Zaragoza?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 78, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
What are the Real Jaén v Zaragoza probabilities?
Real Jaén win 18%, draw 21%, Zaragoza win 61%.
What is the most probable score for Real Jaén vs Zaragoza?
Real Jaén 0–2 Zaragoza is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Real Jaén vs Zaragoza?
Real Jaén 0.97, Zaragoza 1.99 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Real Jaén vs Zaragoza?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 21:00 WAT, at Nuevo Estadio de La Victoria – Primera División RFEF Group 2.