- λ home
- 1.44
- λ away
- 1.50
- Σλ total
- 2.94
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.4%
Sevilla vs Real Betis prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Sevilla 34% · draw 24% · Real Betis 42%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Sevilla v Real Betis: who are you backing?
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Sevilla v Real Betis are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla (home) | 1.58 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 1.51 |
| Real Betis (away) | 1.22 | 1.14 | 1.05 | 1.46 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.58 × 1.00 × 0.95 ≈ 1.51
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.97 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.96 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.88 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.94 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.44, λaway = 1.50
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 36.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 39.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sevilla | 38.3% | 34.0% | 31.0% | 34.3% |
| X Draw | 25.5% | 17.0% | 26.6% | 24.0% |
| 2 Real Betis | 36.1% | 49.0% | 42.3% | 41.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.074 → 7.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sevilla | 34.3% | 2.92 | 3.00 | 33.3% | +2.8% | |
| X · Draw | 24.0% | 4.16 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -16.0% | |
| 2 · Real Betis | 41.7% | 2.40 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -8.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 58.3% | 1.72 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -2.7% | |
| X2 | 65.7% | 1.52 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -10.6% | |
| 12 | 76.0% | 1.32 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -2.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sevilla | 45.1% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Real Betis | 54.9% | 1.82 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -4.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.4% | 4.67 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -7.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -3.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.4% | 2.25 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -6.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.1% | 2.93 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -6.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 65.9% | 1.52 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -5.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 61.6% | 1.62 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -0.2% | |
| BTTS no | 38.4% | 2.61 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -15.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.1% | 3.44 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.2% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 30.7% | 3.26 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.616 × 1.62 − 1 = -0.002 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sevilla | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLWWLD | DWLWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Real Betis narrowly ahead at 42%; Sevilla 34%. Standings: Sevilla 6th on 18, Real Betis 4th on 26.
Form
Sevilla have two wins from their last six (D L W W L D). Latest: 0–0 at home to Alaves. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Real Betis, last six: D W L W D W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–2 away at Navalcarnero. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Real Betis 2–2 Sevilla. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sevilla 1.44 · Real Betis 1.50 · total 2.94. Goals expected – 56% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 62%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.62. Most probable score: Sevilla 1–2 Real Betis. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 1 Mar 2026Real Betis2–2Sevilla
La Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 12 | +35 | 33 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 12 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 12 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 12 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 12 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Racing Santander | 12 | -13 | 14 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 |  Alaves | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 11 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 12 | -10 | 12 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 |  Levante | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 |  Elche | 12 | -6 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | -12 | 9 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 12 | -14 | 5 |
More La Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sevilla vs Real Betis?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sevilla v Real Betis probabilities?
Sevilla win 34%, draw 24%, Real Betis win 42%.
What is the most probable score for Sevilla vs Real Betis?
Sevilla 1–2 Real Betis is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sevilla vs Real Betis?
Sevilla 1.44, Real Betis 1.50 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Sevilla vs Real Betis?
Saturday 21 November 2026, 18:30 WAT – La Liga.