- λ home
- 1.36
- λ away
- 1.07
- Σλ total
- 2.43
- P(over 2.5)
- 43%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.8%
Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Alaves 45% · draw 26% · Deportivo La Coruna 29%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Alaves v Deportivo La Coruna: who are you backing?
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Alaves v Deportivo La Coruna are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 12 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves (home) | 1.58 | 0.91 | 0.91 | 1.31 |
| Deportivo La Coruna (away) | 1.22 | 0.88 | 0.99 | 1.07 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.58 × 0.91 × 0.91 ≈ 1.31
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.38 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.54 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.40 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.43 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.36, λaway = 1.07
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 43.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 29.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Alaves | 41.2% | 47.0% | 46.1% | 44.6% |
| X Draw | 29.0% | 18.0% | 28.3% | 26.2% |
| 2 Deportivo La Coruna | 29.8% | 35.0% | 25.6% | 29.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.085 → 8.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Alaves | 44.6% | 2.24 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -10.8% | |
| X · Draw | 26.2% | 3.82 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -15.0% | |
| 2 · Deportivo La Coruna | 29.2% | 3.42 | 3.60 | 27.8% | +5.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 70.8% | 1.41 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -9.4% | |
| X2 | 55.4% | 1.81 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -0.3% | |
| 12 | 73.8% | 1.35 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -1.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Alaves | 60.4% | 1.66 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Deportivo La Coruna | 39.6% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.0% | 1.43 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -4.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.0% | 3.33 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -3.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43.5% | 2.30 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -4.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -5.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 23.3% | 4.30 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -6.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 76.7% | 1.30 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -4.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 53.6% | 1.87 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +4.5% | |
| BTTS no | 46.4% | 2.16 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -16.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 31.7% | 3.15 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.7% | 2.24 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 23.5% | 4.25 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.536 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.045 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.048 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Alaves | Deportivo La Coruna |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLDLL | DWWLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Alaves 45%, draw 26%, Deportivo La Coruna 29%. Standings: Alaves 12th on 13, Deportivo La Coruna 9th on 15.
Form
Sequence for Alaves: W D L D L L, so one victory in six. Latest: 6–1 away at Anaitasuna. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Deportivo La Coruna have two wins from their last six (D W W L D L). Latest: 0–0 away at Espanyol. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Alaves 1.36 · Deportivo La Coruna 1.07 · total 2.43. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 43%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 54%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.87. Most probable score: Alaves 2–1 Deportivo La Coruna. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
La Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 12 | +35 | 33 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 12 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 12 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 12 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 12 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Racing Santander | 12 | -13 | 14 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 |  Alaves | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 11 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 12 | -10 | 12 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 |  Levante | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 |  Elche | 12 | -6 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | -12 | 9 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 12 | -14 | 5 |
More La Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the Alaves v Deportivo La Coruna probabilities?
Alaves win 45%, draw 26%, Deportivo La Coruna win 29%.
What is the most probable score for Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Alaves 2–1 Deportivo La Coruna is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Alaves 1.36, Deportivo La Coruna 1.07 – over 2.5 at 43%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Saturday 21 November 2026, 14:00 WAT, at Estadio Mendizorrotza – La Liga.