- λ home
- 1.90
- λ away
- 0.80
- Σλ total
- 2.70
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.8%
Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti prediction & xG model: Uta Arad to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Uta Arad v Petrolul Ploiesti: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUta Arad to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Uta Arad v Petrolul Ploiesti are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (25 and 23 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uta Arad (home) | 1.58 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 1.41 |
| Petrolul Ploiesti (away) | 1.01 | 1.03 | 0.91 | 0.95 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.58 × 0.89 × 1.00 ≈ 1.41
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.36 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.57 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.81 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.70 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.90, λaway = 0.80
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 63.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Uta Arad | 46.8% | 71.0% | 54.2% | 63.9% |
| X Draw | 28.4% | 17.0% | 24.4% | 20.1% |
| 2 Petrolul Ploiesti | 24.8% | 12.0% | 21.4% | 16.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.085 → 8.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Uta Arad pick | 63.9% | 1.56 | 1.70 | 58.8% | +8.7% | |
| X · Draw | 20.1% | 4.98 | 3.78 | 26.5% | -24.0% | |
| 2 · Petrolul Ploiesti | 16.0% | 6.27 | 4.30 | 23.3% | -31.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.0% | 1.19 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -1.7% | |
| X2 | 36.1% | 2.77 | 2.02 | 49.5% | -27.2% | |
| 12 | 79.9% | 1.25 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -2.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Uta Arad | 80.0% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Petrolul Ploiesti | 20.0% | 5.01 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.9% | 1.33 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -9.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.1% | 3.99 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -10.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -9.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.1% | 2.08 | 1.99 | 50.3% | -4.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.8% | 3.25 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -15.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.2% | 1.44 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -6.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 56.7% | 1.76 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -3.6% | |
| BTTS no | 43.3% | 2.31 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -13.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.0% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.2% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.8% | 6.76 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.639 × 1.70 − 1 = +0.087 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.124 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Uta Arad | Petrolul Ploiesti |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDWWLW | DWWDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 50% |
| BTTS | 17% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Uta Arad at 64%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Uta Arad 10th on 18, Petrolul Ploiesti 4th on 27.
Form
Uta Arad, last six: L D W W L W – three wins in total. Latest: 0–2 away at Dinamo Bucuresti. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Petrolul Ploiesti: D W W D L L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to CFR 1907 Cluj. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Uta Arad 1.90 · Petrolul Ploiesti 0.80 · total 2.70. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Uta Arad to win, probability 64%, odds 1.70 v fair 1.56. Most probable score: Uta Arad 1–0 Petrolul Ploiesti. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Liga I table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Universitatea Craiova | 15 | +24 | 33 |
| 2 |  Dinamo Bucuresti | 15 | +21 | 33 |
| 3 |  Rapid | 15 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Petrolul Ploiesti | 15 | +2 | 27 |
| 5 |  Universitatea Cluj | 15 | +6 | 26 |
| 6 |  Farul Constanta | 15 | +2 | 24 |
| 7 |  Corvinul Hunedoara | 15 | +1 | 22 |
| 8 |  FCSB | 15 | -1 | 21 |
| 9 |  CFR 1907 Cluj | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 |  Uta Arad | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 11 |  Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 12 |  FC Botosani | 15 | -1 | 15 |
| 13 |  Arges Pitesti | 15 | -7 | 15 |
| 14 |  Oţelul | 15 | -6 | 13 |
| 15 |  FC Voluntari | 15 | -18 | 8 |
| 16 |  Csikszereda | 15 | -19 | 6 |
More Liga I predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti?
The Model pick is Uta Arad to win with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
What are the Uta Arad v Petrolul Ploiesti probabilities?
Uta Arad win 64%, draw 20%, Petrolul Ploiesti win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti?
Uta Arad 1–0 Petrolul Ploiesti is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti?
Uta Arad 1.90, Petrolul Ploiesti 0.80 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti?
Friday 6 November 2026, 16:30 WAT, at Arena Francisc Neuman – Liga I.