- λ home
- 0.84
- λ away
- 1.57
- Σλ total
- 2.41
- P(over 2.5)
- 45%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 0–1 14.1%
Arges Pitesti vs Dinamo Bucuresti prediction & xG model: Dinamo Bucuresti to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Arges Pitesti v Dinamo Bucuresti: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipDinamo Bucuresti to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Arges Pitesti v Dinamo Bucuresti are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (24 and 20 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arges Pitesti (home) | 1.58 | 0.64 | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| Dinamo Bucuresti (away) | 1.01 | 1.37 | 0.83 | 1.15 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.58 × 0.64 × 0.73 ≈ 0.74
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.88 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.29 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.52 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.41 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.84, λaway = 1.57
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 20.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 54.5%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 14.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Arges Pitesti | 23.1% | 23.0% | 22.9% | 23.0% |
| X Draw | 32.8% | 15.0% | 26.2% | 19.7% |
| 2 Dinamo Bucuresti | 44.2% | 62.0% | 50.9% | 57.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.091 → 9.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Arges Pitesti | 23.0% | 4.36 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -8.2% | |
| X · Draw | 19.7% | 5.08 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -31.1% | |
| 2 · Dinamo Bucuresti pick | 57.3% | 1.74 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +3.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 42.7% | 2.34 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -16.8% | |
| X2 | 77.0% | 1.30 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -6.0% | |
| 12 | 80.3% | 1.25 | 1.28 | 78.1% | +2.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Arges Pitesti | 28.6% | 3.50 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Dinamo Bucuresti | 71.4% | 1.40 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.2% | 1.42 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -6.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.8% | 3.36 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -3.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.7% | 2.24 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -8.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.3% | 1.81 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -3.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.6% | 4.07 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -13.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.4% | 1.33 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -3.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 53.2% | 1.88 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +1.6% | |
| BTTS no | 46.8% | 2.14 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -15.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 17.5% | 5.72 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.0% | 2.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 38.5% | 2.60 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.573 × 1.80 − 1 = +0.032 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.040 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Arges Pitesti | Dinamo Bucuresti |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLDLD | WWDWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 2.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 17% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 57% against 23%. Standings: Arges Pitesti 13th on 15, Dinamo Bucuresti 2nd on 33.
Form
Arges Pitesti have one win from their last six (L W L D L D). Latest: 0–2 away at Corvinul Hunedoara. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Sequence for Dinamo Bucuresti: W W D W W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 2–0 at home to Uta Arad. Scoring rate: 2.8 per match – well above average. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Dinamo Bucuresti 0–1 Arges Pitesti. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Arges Pitesti 0.84 · Dinamo Bucuresti 1.57 · total 2.41. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 45%, BTTS 53%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Dinamo Bucuresti to win, probability 57%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.74. Most probable score: Arges Pitesti 0–1 Dinamo Bucuresti. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 1 Mar 2026Dinamo Bucuresti0–1Arges Pitesti
Liga I table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Universitatea Craiova | 15 | +24 | 33 |
| 2 |  Dinamo Bucuresti | 15 | +21 | 33 |
| 3 |  Rapid | 15 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Petrolul Ploiesti | 15 | +2 | 27 |
| 5 |  Universitatea Cluj | 15 | +6 | 26 |
| 6 |  Farul Constanta | 15 | +2 | 24 |
| 7 |  Corvinul Hunedoara | 15 | +1 | 22 |
| 8 |  FCSB | 15 | -1 | 21 |
| 9 |  CFR 1907 Cluj | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 |  Uta Arad | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 11 |  Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 12 |  FC Botosani | 15 | -1 | 15 |
| 13 |  Arges Pitesti | 15 | -7 | 15 |
| 14 |  Oţelul | 15 | -6 | 13 |
| 15 |  FC Voluntari | 15 | -18 | 8 |
| 16 |  Csikszereda | 15 | -19 | 6 |
More Liga I predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Arges Pitesti vs Dinamo Bucuresti?
The Model pick is Dinamo Bucuresti to win with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Arges Pitesti v Dinamo Bucuresti probabilities?
Arges Pitesti win 23%, draw 20%, Dinamo Bucuresti win 57%.
What is the most probable score for Arges Pitesti vs Dinamo Bucuresti?
Arges Pitesti 0–1 Dinamo Bucuresti is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Arges Pitesti vs Dinamo Bucuresti?
Arges Pitesti 0.84, Dinamo Bucuresti 1.57 – over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is Arges Pitesti vs Dinamo Bucuresti?
Friday 6 November 2026, 19:30 WAT – Liga I.