- λ home
- 1.84
- λ away
- 0.66
- Σλ total
- 2.50
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 1–0 15.1%
FCSB vs Petrolul Ploiesti prediction & xG model: FCSB to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
FCSB v Petrolul Ploiesti: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipFCSB to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for FCSB v Petrolul Ploiesti are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.50 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 2.50 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.84, λaway = 0.66
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 65.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 12.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 15.1%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FCSB | – | 70.0% | 65.0% | 67.9% |
| X Draw | – | 15.0% | 21.0% | 17.5% |
| 2 Petrolul Ploiesti | – | 15.0% | 14.0% | 14.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.099 → 9.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FCSB pick | 67.9% | 1.47 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -4.9% | |
| X · Draw | 17.5% | 5.71 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -24.1% | |
| 2 · Petrolul Ploiesti | 14.6% | 6.86 | 6.50 | 15.4% | -5.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.4% | 1.17 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -6.0% | |
| X2 | 32.1% | 3.11 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -10.1% | |
| 12 | 82.5% | 1.21 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -2.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FCSB | 82.3% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Petrolul Ploiesti | 17.7% | 5.66 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.7% | 3.48 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.6% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.2% | 4.13 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.8% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.8% | 2.05 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -9.7% | |
| BTTS no | 51.2% | 1.95 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -5.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.0% | 2.17 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.6% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 12.4% | 8.05 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.679 × 1.40 − 1 = -0.049 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FCSB | Petrolul Ploiesti |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLLWD | WLWLDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
FCSB at 68%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: FCSB 8th on 21, Petrolul Ploiesti 4th on 27.
Form
Sequence for FCSB: L W L L W D, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–2 away at Dinamo Bucuresti. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Petrolul Ploiesti, last six: W L W L D W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to Corvinul Hunedoara. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): FCSB 3–1 Petrolul Ploiesti. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FCSB 1.84 · Petrolul Ploiesti 0.66 · total 2.50. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 49%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: FCSB to win, probability 68%, odds 1.40 v fair 1.47. Most probable score: FCSB 1–0 Petrolul Ploiesti. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 24 Apr 2026FCSB3–1Petrolul Ploiesti
Liga I table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Universitatea Craiova | 15 | +24 | 33 |
| 2 |  Dinamo Bucuresti | 15 | +21 | 33 |
| 3 |  Rapid | 15 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Petrolul Ploiesti | 15 | +2 | 27 |
| 5 |  Universitatea Cluj | 15 | +6 | 26 |
| 6 |  Farul Constanta | 15 | +2 | 24 |
| 7 |  Corvinul Hunedoara | 15 | +1 | 22 |
| 8 |  FCSB | 15 | -1 | 21 |
| 9 |  CFR 1907 Cluj | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 |  Uta Arad | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 11 |  Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 12 |  FC Botosani | 15 | -1 | 15 |
| 13 |  Arges Pitesti | 15 | -7 | 15 |
| 14 |  Oţelul | 15 | -6 | 13 |
| 15 |  FC Voluntari | 15 | -18 | 8 |
| 16 |  Csikszereda | 15 | -19 | 6 |
More Liga I predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FCSB vs Petrolul Ploiesti?
The Model pick is FCSB to win with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.40 by the bookmakers.
What are the FCSB v Petrolul Ploiesti probabilities?
FCSB win 68%, draw 18%, Petrolul Ploiesti win 15%.
What is the most probable score for FCSB vs Petrolul Ploiesti?
FCSB 1–0 Petrolul Ploiesti is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FCSB vs Petrolul Ploiesti?
FCSB 1.84, Petrolul Ploiesti 0.66 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is FCSB vs Petrolul Ploiesti?
Monday 14 September 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Arena Nationala – Liga I.