- λ home
- 1.15
- λ away
- 2.09
- Σλ total
- 3.24
- P(over 2.5)
- 61%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.8%
Loughgall vs Glenavon FC prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Loughgall v Glenavon FC: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–6
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Loughgall v Glenavon FC are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (26 and 23 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loughgall (home) | 1.66 | 0.89 | 0.88 | 1.30 |
| Glenavon FC (away) | 1.38 | 1.51 | 1.17 | 2.43 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.89 × 0.88 ≈ 1.30
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.73 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.41 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.10 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.24 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.15, λaway = 2.09
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 20.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 58.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Loughgall | 18.9% | 19.0% | 22.1% | 20.3% |
| X Draw | 19.2% | 20.0% | 22.1% | 20.9% |
| 2 Glenavon FC | 61.9% | 61.0% | 55.9% | 58.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.105 → 10.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Loughgall | 20.3% | 4.93 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -16.8% | |
| X · Draw | 20.9% | 4.79 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -14.4% | |
| 2 · Glenavon FC | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -4.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 41.2% | 2.43 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -13.6% | |
| X2 | 79.7% | 1.25 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -5.9% | |
| 12 | 79.1% | 1.26 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -7.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Loughgall | 25.6% | 3.90 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Glenavon FC | 74.4% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.4% | 1.23 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -4.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.6% | 5.38 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -16.3% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 61.4% | 1.63 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -3.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 38.6% | 2.59 | 2.35 | 42.6% | -9.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 39.9% | 2.51 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -5.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -8.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 59.5% | 1.68 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -3.6% | |
| BTTS no | 40.5% | 2.47 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -10.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 19.5% | 5.13 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.6% | 2.73 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 43.9% | 2.28 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.614 × 1.57 − 1 = -0.036 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Loughgall | Glenavon FC |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWWDL | WWWWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 3.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 59% against 20%. Standings: Loughgall 9th on 20, Glenavon FC 2nd on 33.
Form
Loughgall have three wins from their last six (W L W W D L). Latest: 3–0 away at Dundela. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Glenavon FC, last six: W W W W D W – five wins in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to Institute. Scoring rate: 3.2 per match – well above average. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): Glenavon FC 4–1 Loughgall. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Loughgall 1.15 · Glenavon FC 2.09 · total 3.24. High total: over 2.5 61%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 61%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.63. Most probable score: Loughgall 1–2 Glenavon FC. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 25 Sep 2026Glenavon FC4–1Loughgall
Championship table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Annagh United | 16 | +23 | 37 |
| 2 |  Glenavon FC | 15 | +25 | 33 |
| 3 |  Newington Youth | 15 | +13 | 30 |
| 4 |  Newry City AFC | 16 | +2 | 26 |
| 5 |  Institute | 15 | +8 | 24 |
| 6 |  Queen's University | 16 | +8 | 23 |
| 7 |  Ballinamallard United | 16 | -2 | 21 |
| 8 |  Ards | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 9 |  Loughgall | 16 | -10 | 20 |
| 10 |  Warrenpoint Town | 14 | +1 | 19 |
| 11 |  H&W Welders | 15 | -2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Rathfriland | 15 | -8 | 19 |
| 13 |  Moyola Park | 15 | -12 | 15 |
| 14 |  Dundela | 14 | -7 | 14 |
| 15 |  Strabane Athletic | 16 | -15 | 11 |
| 16 |  Armagh City | 16 | -21 | 9 |
More Championship predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Loughgall vs Glenavon FC?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.57 by the bookmakers.
What are the Loughgall v Glenavon FC probabilities?
Loughgall win 20%, draw 21%, Glenavon FC win 59%.
What is the most probable score for Loughgall vs Glenavon FC?
Loughgall 1–2 Glenavon FC is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Loughgall vs Glenavon FC?
Loughgall 1.15, Glenavon FC 2.09 – over 2.5 at 61%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Loughgall vs Glenavon FC?
Friday 13 November 2026, 20:45 WAT, at Lakeview Park – Championship.