- λ home
- 2.07
- λ away
- 0.90
- Σλ total
- 2.97
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 2–0 11.0%
Annagh United vs Ballinamallard United prediction & xG model: Annagh United to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Annagh United v Ballinamallard United: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipAnnagh United to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Annagh United v Ballinamallard United are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (26 and 23 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annagh United (home) | 1.66 | 1.38 | 0.90 | 2.06 |
| Ballinamallard United (away) | 1.38 | 0.73 | 0.92 | 0.93 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.38 × 0.90 ≈ 2.06
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.99 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.10 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.87 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.97 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.07, λaway = 0.90
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 64.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.3%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 11.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Annagh United | 62.6% | 69.0% | 59.0% | 64.8% |
| X Draw | 21.5% | 18.0% | 22.0% | 19.7% |
| 2 Ballinamallard United | 15.9% | 13.0% | 19.0% | 15.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.108 → 10.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Annagh United pick | 64.8% | 1.54 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -0.9% | |
| X · Draw | 19.7% | 5.08 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -19.3% | |
| 2 · Ballinamallard United | 15.5% | 6.44 | 4.75 | 21.1% | -26.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.5% | 1.18 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -5.4% | |
| X2 | 35.2% | 2.84 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -20.8% | |
| 12 | 80.3% | 1.25 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -6.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Annagh United | 80.7% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ballinamallard United | 19.3% | 5.17 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.1% | 1.28 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -4.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.9% | 4.58 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -12.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -3.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.2% | 2.26 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -8.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.2% | 2.92 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -6.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 65.8% | 1.52 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -7.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 52.6% | 1.90 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -3.7% | |
| BTTS no | 47.4% | 2.11 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -13.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.8% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.7% | 2.65 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.4% | 6.48 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.648 × 1.53 − 1 = -0.009 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Annagh United | Ballinamallard United |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWLWD | LLWDDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 2.67 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 17% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Annagh United 65% to win. Standings: Annagh United 1st on 37, Ballinamallard United 7th on 21.
Form
Sequence for Annagh United: W W W L W D, so four victories in six. Latest: 1–0 away at Strabane Athletic. 2.7 goals a match in that spell.
Sequence for Ballinamallard United: L L W D D W, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–1 at home to Rathfriland. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Head to head
Previous 2: Annagh United 1, Ballinamallard United 0, drawn 1, 2.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Aug 2026): Ballinamallard United 1–3 Annagh United. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Annagh United 2.07 · Ballinamallard United 0.90 · total 2.97. Goals expected – 56% for over 2.5 and 53% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Annagh United to win, probability 65%, odds 1.53 v fair 1.54. Most probable score: Annagh United 2–0 Ballinamallard United. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 29 Aug 2026Ballinamallard United1–3Annagh United
- 21 Feb 2026Ballinamallard United0–0Annagh United
Championship table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Annagh United | 16 | +23 | 37 |
| 2 |  Glenavon FC | 15 | +25 | 33 |
| 3 |  Newington Youth | 15 | +13 | 30 |
| 4 |  Newry City AFC | 16 | +2 | 26 |
| 5 |  Institute | 15 | +8 | 24 |
| 6 |  Queen's University | 16 | +8 | 23 |
| 7 |  Ballinamallard United | 16 | -2 | 21 |
| 8 |  Ards | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 9 |  Loughgall | 16 | -10 | 20 |
| 10 |  Warrenpoint Town | 14 | +1 | 19 |
| 11 |  H&W Welders | 15 | -2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Rathfriland | 15 | -8 | 19 |
| 13 |  Moyola Park | 15 | -12 | 15 |
| 14 |  Dundela | 14 | -7 | 14 |
| 15 |  Strabane Athletic | 16 | -15 | 11 |
| 16 |  Armagh City | 16 | -21 | 9 |
More Championship predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Annagh United vs Ballinamallard United?
The Model pick is Annagh United to win with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.53 by the bookmakers.
What are the Annagh United v Ballinamallard United probabilities?
Annagh United win 65%, draw 20%, Ballinamallard United win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Annagh United vs Ballinamallard United?
Annagh United 2–0 Ballinamallard United is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Annagh United vs Ballinamallard United?
Annagh United 2.07, Ballinamallard United 0.90 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is Annagh United vs Ballinamallard United?
Friday 13 November 2026, 20:45 WAT – Championship.