- λ home
- 1.90
- λ away
- 1.05
- Σλ total
- 2.95
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.4%
QPR vs Burnley prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
QPR v Burnley: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for QPR v Burnley are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (23 and 15 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QPR (home) | 1.64 | 1.00 | 1.32 | 2.15 |
| Burnley (away) | 1.30 | 1.02 | 0.96 | 1.27 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.64 × 1.00 × 1.32 ≈ 2.15
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.42 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.04 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.88 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.95 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.90, λaway = 1.05
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 57.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 20.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 QPR | 56.8% | 61.0% | 48.0% | 55.5% |
| X Draw | 21.4% | 25.0% | 26.0% | 25.4% |
| 2 Burnley | 21.8% | 14.0% | 26.0% | 19.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.068 → 6.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · QPR | 55.5% | 1.80 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +8.3% | |
| X · Draw | 25.4% | 3.93 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -8.5% | |
| 2 · Burnley | 19.0% | 5.25 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -31.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 81.0% | 1.24 | 1.28 | 78.1% | +3.6% | |
| X2 | 44.5% | 2.25 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -20.0% | |
| 12 | 74.6% | 1.34 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -4.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB QPR | 74.5% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Burnley | 25.5% | 3.92 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.7% | 1.27 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -4.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.3% | 4.69 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -7.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.80 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -3.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.3% | 2.26 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -7.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -7.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.7% | 1.55 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -2.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 62.0% | 1.61 | 1.62 | 61.7% | +0.4% | |
| BTTS no | 38.0% | 2.63 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -16.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.0% | 2.38 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.9% | 2.57 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.1% | 5.23 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.620 × 1.62 − 1 = +0.004 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.006 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | QPR | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLWDD | DLLDWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: QPR 56%, draw 25%, Burnley 19%. Standings: QPR 8th on 24, Burnley 22nd on 10.
Form
QPR, last six: L W L W D D – two wins in total. Latest: 1–4 away at Southampton. 2.2 goals a match in that spell.
Burnley have one win from their last six (D L L D W D). Latest: 0–0 at home to Portsmouth. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG QPR 1.90 · Burnley 1.05 · total 2.95. High total: over 2.5 56%, BTTS 62%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 62%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.61. Most probable score: QPR 2–1 Burnley. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Championship table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Birmingham | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 15 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 |  Stoke City | 15 | +6 | 29 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 6 |  Swansea | 15 | +4 | 26 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 8 |  QPR | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  West Ham | 15 | +14 | 23 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 15 | +8 | 21 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 15 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Cardiff | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 15 |  Wrexham | 15 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Millwall | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 17 |  Bristol City | 15 | -8 | 18 |
| 18 |  Bolton | 15 | -9 | 17 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 15 | -10 | 17 |
| 20 |  Watford | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 21 |  Lincoln | 15 | -11 | 15 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 15 | -9 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | -16 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 15 | -17 | 8 |
More Championship predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for QPR vs Burnley?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the QPR v Burnley probabilities?
QPR win 56%, draw 25%, Burnley win 19%.
What is the most probable score for QPR vs Burnley?
QPR 2–1 Burnley is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for QPR vs Burnley?
QPR 1.90, Burnley 1.05 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is QPR vs Burnley?
Tuesday 3 November 2026, 20:45 WAT, at Loftus Road – Championship.