- λ home
- 1.23
- λ away
- 1.25
- Σλ total
- 2.47
- P(over 2.5)
- 45%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.9%
Portsmouth vs Swansea prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Portsmouth v Swansea: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Portsmouth v Swansea are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (27 and 23 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth (home) | 1.64 | 0.91 | 0.91 | 1.36 |
| Swansea (away) | 1.30 | 1.02 | 0.88 | 1.16 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.64 × 0.91 × 0.91 ≈ 1.36
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.52 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.46 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.48 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.47 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.23, λaway = 1.25
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 36.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 36.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Portsmouth | 40.6% | 41.0% | 34.6% | 38.3% |
| X Draw | 28.1% | 18.0% | 28.8% | 22.5% |
| 2 Swansea | 31.4% | 41.0% | 36.6% | 39.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.070 → 7.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Portsmouth | 38.3% | 2.61 | 2.70 | 37.0% | +3.5% | |
| X · Draw | 22.5% | 4.44 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -26.8% | |
| 2 · Swansea | 39.2% | 2.55 | 2.55 | 39.2% | -0.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 60.8% | 1.64 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -8.8% | |
| X2 | 61.7% | 1.62 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -11.2% | |
| 12 | 77.5% | 1.29 | 1.33 | 75.2% | +3.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Portsmouth | 49.4% | 2.02 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Swansea | 50.6% | 1.98 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -5.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.7% | 3.48 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -2.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.0% | 2.22 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -5.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -4.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.5% | 4.07 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -7.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.5% | 1.33 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -3.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 57.9% | 1.73 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +4.3% | |
| BTTS no | 42.1% | 2.38 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -19.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.5% | 3.63 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.4% | 2.25 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.0% | 3.57 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.579 × 1.80 − 1 = +0.043 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.054 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.3% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Portsmouth | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWDWWL | WLLWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 38 / 23 / 39% for home, draw, away. Standings: Portsmouth 11th on 22, Swansea 6th on 26.
Form
Portsmouth, last six: D W D W W L – three wins in total. Latest: 0–0 away at Burnley. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Sequence for Swansea: W L L W W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 4–0 at home to Blackburn. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Portsmouth 1–2 Swansea. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Portsmouth 1.23 · Swansea 1.25 · total 2.47. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 45%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.73. Most probable score: Portsmouth 1–2 Swansea. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 10 Mar 2026Portsmouth1–2Swansea
Championship table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Birmingham | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 15 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 |  Stoke City | 15 | +6 | 29 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 6 |  Swansea | 15 | +4 | 26 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 8 |  QPR | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  West Ham | 15 | +14 | 23 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 15 | +8 | 21 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 15 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Cardiff | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 15 |  Wrexham | 15 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Millwall | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 17 |  Bristol City | 15 | -8 | 18 |
| 18 |  Bolton | 15 | -9 | 17 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 15 | -10 | 17 |
| 20 |  Watford | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 21 |  Lincoln | 15 | -11 | 15 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 15 | -9 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | -16 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 15 | -17 | 8 |
More Championship predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Portsmouth vs Swansea?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Portsmouth v Swansea probabilities?
Portsmouth win 38%, draw 23%, Swansea win 39%.
What is the most probable score for Portsmouth vs Swansea?
Portsmouth 1–2 Swansea is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Portsmouth vs Swansea?
Portsmouth 1.23, Swansea 1.25 – over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Portsmouth vs Swansea?
Tuesday 3 November 2026, 20:45 WAT, at Fratton Park – Championship.