- λ home
- 1.80
- λ away
- 1.77
- Σλ total
- 3.57
- P(over 2.5)
- 68%
- P(BTTS)
- 71%
- Modal score
- 1–1 9.0%
Slovan Velvary vs Meteor Praha prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Slovan Velvary 41% · draw 18% · Meteor Praha 40%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Slovan Velvary v Meteor Praha: who are you backing?
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Slovan Velvary v Meteor Praha are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.75 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.41 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.57 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.80, λaway = 1.77
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 39.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 38.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 9.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Slovan Velvary | – | 39.0% | 44.9% | 41.5% |
| X Draw | – | 15.0% | 22.4% | 18.1% |
| 2 Meteor Praha | – | 46.0% | 32.7% | 40.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.114 → 11.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Slovan Velvary | 41.5% | 2.41 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -17.0% | |
| X · Draw | 18.1% | 5.52 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -27.5% | |
| 2 · Meteor Praha | 40.4% | 2.48 | 2.75 | 36.4% | +11.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 59.6% | 1.68 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -18.9% | |
| X2 | 58.5% | 1.71 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -2.3% | |
| 12 | 81.9% | 1.22 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -4.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Slovan Velvary | 50.7% | 1.97 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Meteor Praha | 49.3% | 2.03 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 87.1% | 1.15 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 12.9% | 7.75 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -5.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 32.3% | 3.10 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -11.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 47.8% | 2.09 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 52.2% | 1.91 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 70.9% | 1.41 | 1.37 | 73.0% | -2.9% | |
| BTTS no | 29.1% | 3.44 | 2.98 | 33.6% | -13.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.5% | 3.08 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.8% | 2.80 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 31.8% | 3.15 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.709 × 1.37 − 1 = -0.029 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Slovan Velvary | Meteor Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLLDL | LLLLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-1-5 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 0.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.50 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 100% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 41 / 18 / 40% for home, draw, away. Standings: Slovan Velvary 13th on 14, Meteor Praha 11th on 16.
Form
Sequence for Slovan Velvary: L L L L D L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 1–3 away at Chomutov. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Sequence for Meteor Praha: L L L L W W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–3 at home to Újezd Praha 4. Per match: 1.8 scored, 2.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Slovan Velvary 1.80 · Meteor Praha 1.77 · total 3.57. High total: over 2.5 68%, BTTS 71%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 71%, odds 1.37 v fair 1.41. Most probable score: Slovan Velvary 2–1 Meteor Praha. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
4. Liga Divizie B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chomutov | 14 | +18 | 34 |
| 2 |  Sokol Hostouň | 14 | +23 | 31 |
| 3 |  Újezd Praha 4 | 14 | +7 | 27 |
| 4 |  Rapid Psáry | 14 | +14 | 26 |
| 5 |  Baník Sokolov | 14 | +10 | 24 |
| 6 |  Brandýs nad Labem | 14 | +8 | 24 |
| 7 |  Karlovy Vary | 14 | +7 | 21 |
| 8 |  Tempo Praha | 14 | +6 | 21 |
| 9 |  Slaný | 14 | +11 | 19 |
| 10 |  Štětí | 14 | -7 | 18 |
| 11 |  Meteor Praha | 14 | -7 | 16 |
| 12 |  Ostrov | 14 | -14 | 14 |
| 13 |  Slovan Velvary | 14 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 |  Ústí nad Labem II | 14 | -24 | 12 |
| 15 |  Slavoj Vyšehrad | 14 | -18 | 10 |
| 16 |  Hvězda Cheb | 14 | -20 | 10 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Slovan Velvary vs Meteor Praha?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 71, priced around 1.37 by the bookmakers.
What are the Slovan Velvary v Meteor Praha probabilities?
Slovan Velvary win 41%, draw 18%, Meteor Praha win 40%.
What is the most probable score for Slovan Velvary vs Meteor Praha?
Slovan Velvary 2–1 Meteor Praha is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Slovan Velvary vs Meteor Praha?
Slovan Velvary 1.80, Meteor Praha 1.77 – over 2.5 at 68%, BTTS at 71%.
What time is Slovan Velvary vs Meteor Praha?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:00 WAT, at Football pitch Velvary – 4. Liga Divizie B.