- λ home
- 1.76
- λ away
- 1.11
- Σλ total
- 2.87
- P(over 2.5)
- 57%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.1%
Tottenham vs Ipswich prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Tottenham 58% · draw 24% · Ipswich 18%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Tottenham v Ipswich: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Tottenham v Ipswich are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (17 and 10 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham (home) | 1.53 | 0.79 | 1.33 | 1.59 |
| Ipswich (away) | 1.20 | 1.07 | 0.93 | 1.19 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.53 × 0.79 × 1.33 ≈ 1.59
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.79 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.80 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.04 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.87 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.76, λaway = 1.11
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 52.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 23.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Tottenham | 45.9% | 68.0% | 61.3% | 57.5% |
| X Draw | 26.0% | 25.0% | 22.3% | 24.2% |
| 2 Ipswich | 28.1% | 7.0% | 16.3% | 18.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.066 → 6.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Tottenham | 57.5% | 1.74 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -12.0% | |
| X · Draw | 24.2% | 4.13 | 4.20 | 23.8% | +1.7% | |
| 2 · Ipswich | 18.3% | 5.47 | 5.75 | 17.4% | +5.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 81.7% | 1.22 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -6.8% | |
| X2 | 42.5% | 2.35 | 2.38 | 42.0% | +1.1% | |
| 12 | 75.8% | 1.32 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -7.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Tottenham | 75.9% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ipswich | 24.1% | 4.15 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -7.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.5% | 4.88 | 5.00 | 20.0% | +2.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56.7% | 1.76 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -8.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 43.3% | 2.31 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -0.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.1% | 2.85 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -12.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.9% | 1.54 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -0.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 57.4% | 1.74 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -4.2% | |
| BTTS no | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -10.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 38.9% | 2.57 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.1% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 21.0% | 4.76 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.574 × 1.67 − 1 = -0.042 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Tottenham | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWWDL | LDDLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Tottenham ahead at 58%, against 18% for Ipswich and 24% for the draw. Standings: Tottenham 11th on 12, Ipswich 14th on 11.
Form
Sequence for Tottenham: L W W W D L, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–1 away at Leeds. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Ipswich have one win from their last six (L D D L W L). Latest: 1–2 at home to Bournemouth. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Tottenham 1.76 · Ipswich 1.11 · total 2.87. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 57%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 57%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.74. Most probable score: Tottenham 2–1 Ipswich. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Premier League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 |  Brighton | 10 | +19 | 22 |
| 3 |  Manchester City | 10 | +8 | 21 |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  Everton | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bournemouth | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 |  Brentford | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 9 |  Leeds | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 |  Tottenham | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 10 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry | 10 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 10 | -5 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sunderland | 10 | -9 | 8 |
| 20 |  Crystal Palace | 10 | -14 | 7 |
More Premier League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Tottenham vs Ipswich?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Tottenham v Ipswich probabilities?
Tottenham win 58%, draw 24%, Ipswich win 18%.
What is the most probable score for Tottenham vs Ipswich?
Tottenham 2–1 Ipswich is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Tottenham vs Ipswich?
Tottenham 1.76, Ipswich 1.11 – over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Tottenham vs Ipswich?
Saturday 21 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – Premier League.