- λ home
- 1.61
- λ away
- 1.04
- Σλ total
- 2.65
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.8%
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Bournemouth 50% · draw 24% · Nottingham Forest 25%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (17 and 20 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth (home) | 1.53 | 1.10 | 0.94 | 1.59 |
| Nottingham Forest (away) | 1.20 | 0.89 | 0.94 | 1.00 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.53 × 1.10 × 0.94 ≈ 1.59
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.59 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.60 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.78 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.65 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.61, λaway = 1.04
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 50.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 24.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Bournemouth | 50.1% | 56.0% | 47.0% | 50.2% |
| X Draw | 26.4% | 17.0% | 26.9% | 24.4% |
| 2 Nottingham Forest | 23.5% | 27.0% | 26.1% | 25.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.063 → 6.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Bournemouth | 50.2% | 1.99 | 2.00 | 50.0% | +0.3% | |
| X · Draw | 24.4% | 4.10 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -14.5% | |
| 2 · Nottingham Forest | 25.4% | 3.93 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -8.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 74.6% | 1.34 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -4.5% | |
| X2 | 49.8% | 2.01 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -10.3% | |
| 12 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -3.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Bournemouth | 66.4% | 1.51 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Nottingham Forest | 33.6% | 2.97 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.2% | 1.33 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -6.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.8% | 4.03 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -0.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -8.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.0% | 2.04 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -2.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.7% | 3.37 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -11.0% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 70.3% | 1.42 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -1.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 56.2% | 1.78 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -6.2% | |
| BTTS no | 43.8% | 2.28 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -7.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 36.9% | 2.71 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.1% | 2.37 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 21.0% | 4.77 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.703 × 1.40 − 1 = -0.015 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Bournemouth | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWWW | WLDLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 6-0-0 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 3.00 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.67 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.33 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Bournemouth 50%, draw 24%, Nottingham Forest 25%. Standings: Bournemouth 7th on 15, Nottingham Forest 16th on 9.
Form
Sequence for Bournemouth: W W W W W W, so six victories in six. Latest: 2–1 away at Ipswich. 2.7 goals a match in that spell. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Nottingham Forest, last six: W L D L L L – one win in total. Latest: 3–1 at home to Manchester City. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Nottingham Forest 1–1 Bournemouth. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Bournemouth 1.61 · Nottingham Forest 1.04 · total 2.65. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection
Selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 70%, odds 1.40 v fair 1.42. Most probable score: Bournemouth 1–0 Nottingham Forest. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 24 May 2026Nottingham Forest1–1Bournemouth
Premier League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 |  Brighton | 10 | +19 | 22 |
| 3 |  Manchester City | 10 | +8 | 21 |
| 4 |  Liverpool | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  Everton | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bournemouth | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 |  Brentford | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 9 |  Leeds | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 |  Tottenham | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 10 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry | 10 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 10 | -5 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sunderland | 10 | -9 | 8 |
| 20 |  Crystal Palace | 10 | -14 | 7 |
More Premier League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 70, priced around 1.40 by the bookmakers.
What are the Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest probabilities?
Bournemouth win 50%, draw 24%, Nottingham Forest win 25%.
What is the most probable score for Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Bournemouth 1–0 Nottingham Forest is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Bournemouth 1.61, Nottingham Forest 1.04 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Saturday 21 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Vitality Stadium – Premier League.