- λ home
- 2.19
- λ away
- 1.11
- Σλ total
- 3.30
- P(over 2.5)
- 62%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.8%
Zulte-Waregem W vs Gent W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Zulte-Waregem W 63% · draw 18% · Gent W 19%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Zulte-Waregem W v Gent W: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Zulte-Waregem W v Gent W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.56 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.09 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.30 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.19, λaway = 1.11
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 62.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 18.2%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Zulte-Waregem W | – | 66.0% | 58.6% | 62.9% |
| X Draw | – | 15.0% | 22.3% | 18.1% |
| 2 Gent W | – | 19.0% | 19.2% | 19.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Zulte-Waregem W | 62.9% | 1.59 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -4.4% | |
| X · Draw | 18.1% | 5.54 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -27.8% | |
| 2 · Gent W | 19.1% | 5.25 | 4.65 | 21.5% | -11.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 80.9% | 1.24 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -11.0% | |
| X2 | 37.1% | 2.69 | 2.16 | 46.3% | -19.8% | |
| 12 | 81.9% | 1.22 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -5.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Zulte-Waregem W | 76.7% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Gent W | 23.3% | 4.30 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.8% | 1.22 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -6.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.2% | 5.49 | 4.40 | 22.7% | -19.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61.8% | 1.62 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -4.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 38.2% | 2.62 | 2.27 | 44.1% | -13.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40.7% | 2.46 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -6.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 59.3% | 1.69 | 1.49 | 67.1% | -11.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 62.9% | 1.59 | 1.59 | 62.9% | +0.0% | |
| BTTS no | 37.1% | 2.70 | 2.13 | 46.9% | -21.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.1% | 2.17 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.8% | 2.79 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 18.1% | 5.52 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.629 × 1.59 − 1 = +0.000 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.001 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Zulte-Waregem W | Gent W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLWLL | LLLLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-0-5 | 0-0-6 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 3.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Zulte-Waregem W 63% to win. Standings: Zulte-Waregem W 7th on 3, Gent W 8th on 0.
Form
Zulte-Waregem W, last six: L L L W L L – one win in total. Latest: 0–1 away at Standard Liege W. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.3 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Gent W, last six: L L L L L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 0–2 at home to RAAL La Louviere W. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Oct 2026): Gent W 1–3 Zulte-Waregem W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Zulte-Waregem W 2.19 · Gent W 1.11 · total 3.30. Goals expected – 62% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 63%, odds 1.59 v fair 1.59. Most probable score: Zulte-Waregem W 2–1 Gent W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 3 Oct 2026Gent W1–3Zulte-Waregem W
Super League Women table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Anderlecht W | 8 | +16 | 21 |
| 2 |  Club Brugge W | 8 | +11 | 18 |
| 3 |  OH Leuven W | 8 | +12 | 13 |
| 4 |  RAAL La Louviere W | 8 | +1 | 12 |
| 5 |  Standard Liege W | 8 | -7 | 12 |
| 6 |  Genk W | 8 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 |  Zulte-Waregem W | 8 | -9 | 3 |
| 8 |  Gent W | 8 | -22 | 0 |
More Super League Women predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Zulte-Waregem W vs Gent W?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.59 by the bookmakers.
What are the Zulte-Waregem W v Gent W probabilities?
Zulte-Waregem W win 63%, draw 18%, Gent W win 19%.
What is the most probable score for Zulte-Waregem W vs Gent W?
Zulte-Waregem W 2–1 Gent W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Zulte-Waregem W vs Gent W?
Zulte-Waregem W 2.19, Gent W 1.11 – over 2.5 at 62%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Zulte-Waregem W vs Gent W?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 13:30 WAT – Super League Women.