- λ home
- 2.08
- λ away
- 0.92
- Σλ total
- 3.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 2–0 10.7%
FC Ryukyu vs Kamatamare Sanuki prediction & xG model: FC Ryukyu to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
FC Ryukyu v Kamatamare Sanuki: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipFC Ryukyu to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for FC Ryukyu v Kamatamare Sanuki are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Ryukyu (home) | 1.52 | 1.10 | 1.14 | 1.90 |
| Kamatamare Sanuki (away) | 1.23 | 0.83 | 1.07 | 1.09 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 1.10 × 1.14 ≈ 1.90
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.99 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.08, λaway = 0.92
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 64.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.8%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 10.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FC Ryukyu | 55.4% | 75.0% | 45.4% | 62.6% |
| X Draw | 23.3% | 19.0% | 28.6% | 23.0% |
| 2 Kamatamare Sanuki | 21.2% | 6.0% | 26.0% | 14.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.130 → 13.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FC Ryukyu pick | 62.6% | 1.60 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +22.0% | |
| X · Draw | 23.0% | 4.35 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -28.7% | |
| 2 · Kamatamare Sanuki | 14.4% | 6.94 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -51.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.6% | 1.17 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +7.0% | |
| X2 | 37.4% | 2.67 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -37.5% | |
| 12 | 77.0% | 1.30 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +0.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FC Ryukyu | 81.3% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Kamatamare Sanuki | 18.7% | 5.34 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.1% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.9% | 5.02 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.3% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.7% | 1.55 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 58.2% | 1.72 | 1.73 | 57.8% | +0.8% | |
| BTTS no | 41.8% | 2.39 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -18.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.5% | 2.15 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.6% | 2.66 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.9% | 6.30 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.626 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.220 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.232 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FC Ryukyu | Kamatamare Sanuki |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLWDL | LLLLDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 0-2-4 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
FC Ryukyu at 63%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: FC Ryukyu 11th on 23, Kamatamare Sanuki 18th on 14.
Form
Sequence for FC Ryukyu: W L L W D L, so two victories in six. Latest: 3–0 at home to Kitakyushu. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Sequence for Kamatamare Sanuki: L L L L D D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 0–2 at home to JEF United Chiba. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FC Ryukyu 2.08 · Kamatamare Sanuki 0.92 · total 3.00. High total: over 2.5 58%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: FC Ryukyu to win, probability 63%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.60. Most probable score: FC Ryukyu 2–0 Kamatamare Sanuki. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FC Ryukyu vs Kamatamare Sanuki?
The Model pick is FC Ryukyu to win with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the FC Ryukyu v Kamatamare Sanuki probabilities?
FC Ryukyu win 63%, draw 23%, Kamatamare Sanuki win 14%.
What is the most probable score for FC Ryukyu vs Kamatamare Sanuki?
FC Ryukyu 2–0 Kamatamare Sanuki is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FC Ryukyu vs Kamatamare Sanuki?
FC Ryukyu 2.08, Kamatamare Sanuki 0.92 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is FC Ryukyu vs Kamatamare Sanuki?
Sunday 13 September 2026, 10:00 WAT, at Okinawa Athletic Park Stadium – J3 League.