- λ home
- 1.30
- λ away
- 1.60
- Σλ total
- 2.90
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.4%
Parceiro Nagano vs Tochigi SC prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Parceiro Nagano v Tochigi SC: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Parceiro Nagano v Tochigi SC are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parceiro Nagano (home) | 1.52 | 1.00 | 0.74 | 1.12 |
| Tochigi SC (away) | 1.23 | 0.71 | 0.97 | 0.85 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 1.00 × 0.74 ≈ 1.12
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.97 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.90 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.90 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.30, λaway = 1.60
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 31.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 44.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Parceiro Nagano | 40.7% | 35.0% | 26.0% | 31.2% |
| X Draw | 32.4% | 19.0% | 30.8% | 23.9% |
| 2 Tochigi SC | 26.9% | 46.0% | 43.2% | 44.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.129 → 12.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Parceiro Nagano | 31.2% | 3.20 | 3.40 | 29.4% | +6.2% | |
| X · Draw | 23.9% | 4.18 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -31.1% | |
| 2 · Tochigi SC | 44.8% | 2.23 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -8.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -7.9% | |
| X2 | 68.8% | 1.45 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -14.1% | |
| 12 | 76.1% | 1.31 | 1.36 | 73.5% | +3.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Parceiro Nagano | 41.1% | 2.43 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Tochigi SC | 58.9% | 1.70 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.5% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.5% | 4.66 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.80 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.6% | 2.24 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 33.0% | 3.03 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.0% | 1.70 | 2.00 | 50.0% | +18.0% | |
| BTTS no | 41.0% | 2.44 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -30.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 25.7% | 3.90 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.3% | 2.48 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 34.0% | 2.94 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.590 × 2.00 − 1 = +0.180 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.180 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Parceiro Nagano | Tochigi SC |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDLLWW | LWLLDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Tochigi SC narrowly ahead at 45%; Parceiro Nagano 31%. Standings: Parceiro Nagano 10th on 23, Tochigi SC 14th on 21.
Form
Sequence for Parceiro Nagano: D D L L W W, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–0 at home to Mito Hollyhock. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Tochigi SC, last six: L W L L D W – two wins in total. Latest: 0–1 at home to Montedio Yamagata. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Parceiro Nagano 1.30 · Tochigi SC 1.60 · total 2.90. Goals expected – 55% for over 2.5 and 59% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 2.00 v fair 1.70. Most probable score: Parceiro Nagano 1–2 Tochigi SC. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Parceiro Nagano vs Tochigi SC?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 59, priced around 2.00 by the bookmakers.
What are the Parceiro Nagano v Tochigi SC probabilities?
Parceiro Nagano win 31%, draw 24%, Tochigi SC win 45%.
What is the most probable score for Parceiro Nagano vs Tochigi SC?
Parceiro Nagano 1–2 Tochigi SC is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Parceiro Nagano vs Tochigi SC?
Parceiro Nagano 1.30, Tochigi SC 1.60 – over 2.5 at 55%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Parceiro Nagano vs Tochigi SC?
Sunday 13 September 2026, 11:00 WAT, at Nagano U Stadium – J3 League.