- λ home
- 1.29
- λ away
- 1.41
- Σλ total
- 2.70
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.2%
Kafr Qasim vs Hapoel Afula prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Kafr Qasim v Hapoel Afula: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Kafr Qasim v Hapoel Afula are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (28 and 29 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kafr Qasim (home) | 1.66 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 1.33 |
| Hapoel Afula (away) | 1.38 | 1.07 | 0.90 | 1.32 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.93 × 0.86 ≈ 1.33
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.66 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.67 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.72 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.70 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.29, λaway = 1.41
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 34.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 39.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Kafr Qasim | 36.6% | 38.0% | 35.0% | 36.7% |
| X Draw | 27.3% | 17.0% | 27.5% | 21.4% |
| 2 Hapoel Afula | 36.1% | 45.0% | 37.5% | 41.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Kafr Qasim | 36.7% | 2.72 | 2.55 | 39.2% | -6.3% | |
| X · Draw | 21.4% | 4.67 | 3.24 | 30.9% | -30.6% | |
| 2 · Hapoel Afula | 41.8% | 2.39 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -0.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 58.2% | 1.72 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -16.8% | |
| X2 | 63.3% | 1.58 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -12.7% | |
| 12 | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -2.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Kafr Qasim | 46.7% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Hapoel Afula | 53.3% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.6% | 1.34 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -8.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.4% | 3.94 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -11.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.96 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -8.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.1% | 2.04 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -7.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.8% | 3.36 | 2.92 | 34.2% | -13.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.2% | 1.42 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -8.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 61.3% | 1.63 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -0.6% | |
| BTTS no | 38.7% | 2.59 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -19.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.3% | 3.66 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.2% | 2.37 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 30.4% | 3.28 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.613 × 1.62 − 1 = -0.006 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Kafr Qasim | Hapoel Afula |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLLLW | WWLDWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-4 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 37 / 21 / 42% for home, draw, away. Standings: Kafr Qasim 12th on 13, Hapoel Afula 5th on 24.
Form
Kafr Qasim have two wins from their last six (L W L L L W). Latest: 2–3 away at Maccabi Ahi Nazareth. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Hapoel Afula have three wins from their last six (W W L D W D). Latest: 1–0 at home to Maccabi Kiryat Gat. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Hapoel Afula 2–0 Kafr Qasim. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Kafr Qasim 1.29 · Hapoel Afula 1.41 · total 2.70. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 61%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 61%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.63. Most probable score: Kafr Qasim 1–2 Hapoel Afula. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 25 May 2026Hapoel Afula2–0Kafr Qasim
Liga Leumit table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ashdod | 13 | +13 | 31 |
| 2 |  Bnei Yehuda | 13 | +16 | 30 |
| 3 |  Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 13 | +10 | 29 |
| 4 |  Hapoel Ra'anana | 13 | +10 | 25 |
| 5 |  Hapoel Afula | 13 | +6 | 24 |
| 6 |  Kiryat Yam SC | 13 | +10 | 22 |
| 7 |  Hapoel Rishon LeZion | 13 | +5 | 22 |
| 8 |  Maccabi Bnei Raina | 13 | +7 | 21 |
| 9 |  Hapoel Kfar Saba | 13 | -5 | 15 |
| 10 |  Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 13 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 |  Maccabi Ahi Nazareth | 13 | -7 | 14 |
| 12 |  Kafr Qasim | 13 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Ironi Modi'in | 13 | -9 | 12 |
| 14 |  Maccabi Herzliya | 13 | -6 | 10 |
| 15 |  Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 13 | -18 | 9 |
| 16 |  Hapoel Acre | 13 | -28 | 3 |
More Liga Leumit predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Kafr Qasim vs Hapoel Afula?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Kafr Qasim v Hapoel Afula probabilities?
Kafr Qasim win 37%, draw 21%, Hapoel Afula win 42%.
What is the most probable score for Kafr Qasim vs Hapoel Afula?
Kafr Qasim 1–2 Hapoel Afula is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Kafr Qasim vs Hapoel Afula?
Kafr Qasim 1.29, Hapoel Afula 1.41 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Kafr Qasim vs Hapoel Afula?
Monday 9 November 2026, 18:00 WAT – Liga Leumit.