- λ home
- 1.55
- λ away
- 1.34
- Σλ total
- 2.88
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.6%
Ironi Modi'in vs Hapoel Acre prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Ironi Modi'in v Hapoel Acre: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Ironi Modi'in v Hapoel Acre are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (29 and 29 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ironi Modi'in (home) | 1.66 | 0.95 | 1.11 | 1.76 |
| Hapoel Acre (away) | 1.38 | 0.70 | 1.07 | 1.03 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.95 × 1.11 ≈ 1.76
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.79 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.13 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.67 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.88 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.55, λaway = 1.34
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 42.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 33.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ironi Modi'in | 53.6% | 47.0% | 39.7% | 43.9% |
| X Draw | 24.6% | 17.0% | 27.7% | 21.5% |
| 2 Hapoel Acre | 21.8% | 36.0% | 32.6% | 34.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.095 → 9.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Ironi Modi'in | 43.9% | 2.28 | 2.30 | 43.5% | +1.1% | |
| X · Draw | 21.5% | 4.65 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -29.1% | |
| 2 · Hapoel Acre | 34.6% | 2.89 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -3.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.4% | 1.53 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -13.0% | |
| X2 | 56.1% | 1.78 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -14.2% | |
| 12 | 78.5% | 1.27 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -1.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Ironi Modi'in | 56.0% | 1.79 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Hapoel Acre | 44.0% | 2.27 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.7% | 1.32 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -3.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.3% | 4.12 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -15.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.91 | 1.90 | 52.6% | -0.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 47.5% | 2.10 | 1.90 | 52.6% | -9.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.8% | 3.24 | 3.25 | 30.8% | +0.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.2% | 1.45 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -8.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 58.9% | 1.70 | 1.73 | 57.8% | +1.8% | |
| BTTS no | 41.1% | 2.43 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -17.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.6% | 3.07 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.6% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 26.8% | 3.72 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.589 × 1.73 − 1 = +0.018 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.025 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.6% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Ironi Modi'in | Hapoel Acre |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLWLW | DWLLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Ironi Modi'in ahead at 44%, against 35% for Hapoel Acre and 21% for the draw. Standings: Ironi Modi'in 13th on 12, Hapoel Acre 16th on 3.
Form
Ironi Modi'in, last six: L W L W L W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–3 away at Hapoel Kfar Shalem. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.2 conceded.
Hapoel Acre have one win from their last six (D W L L D L). Latest: 2–2 at home to Hapoel Rishon LeZion. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Ironi Modi'in 0–1 Hapoel Acre. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Ironi Modi'in 1.55 · Hapoel Acre 1.34 · total 2.88. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.70. Most probable score: Ironi Modi'in 2–1 Hapoel Acre. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 14 May 2026Ironi Modi'in0–1Hapoel Acre
Liga Leumit table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ashdod | 13 | +13 | 31 |
| 2 |  Bnei Yehuda | 13 | +16 | 30 |
| 3 |  Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 13 | +10 | 29 |
| 4 |  Hapoel Ra'anana | 13 | +10 | 25 |
| 5 |  Hapoel Afula | 13 | +6 | 24 |
| 6 |  Kiryat Yam SC | 13 | +10 | 22 |
| 7 |  Hapoel Rishon LeZion | 13 | +5 | 22 |
| 8 |  Maccabi Bnei Raina | 13 | +7 | 21 |
| 9 |  Hapoel Kfar Saba | 13 | -5 | 15 |
| 10 |  Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 13 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 |  Maccabi Ahi Nazareth | 13 | -7 | 14 |
| 12 |  Kafr Qasim | 13 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Ironi Modi'in | 13 | -9 | 12 |
| 14 |  Maccabi Herzliya | 13 | -6 | 10 |
| 15 |  Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 13 | -18 | 9 |
| 16 |  Hapoel Acre | 13 | -28 | 3 |
More Liga Leumit predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Ironi Modi'in vs Hapoel Acre?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the Ironi Modi'in v Hapoel Acre probabilities?
Ironi Modi'in win 44%, draw 21%, Hapoel Acre win 35%.
What is the most probable score for Ironi Modi'in vs Hapoel Acre?
Ironi Modi'in 2–1 Hapoel Acre is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Ironi Modi'in vs Hapoel Acre?
Ironi Modi'in 1.55, Hapoel Acre 1.34 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Ironi Modi'in vs Hapoel Acre?
Monday 9 November 2026, 18:00 WAT – Liga Leumit.