- λ home
- 1.07
- λ away
- 1.10
- Σλ total
- 2.17
- P(over 2.5)
- 37%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.4%
Macva vs Mladost Lucani prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Macva v Mladost Lucani: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Macva v Mladost Lucani are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (30 and 26 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macva (home) | 1.66 | 0.81 | 0.92 | 1.24 |
| Mladost Lucani (away) | 1.38 | 0.69 | 0.90 | 0.86 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.81 × 0.92 ≈ 1.24
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.10 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.17 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.17 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.07, λaway = 1.10
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 34.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 29.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Macva | 44.1% | 39.0% | 35.5% | 37.5% |
| X Draw | 30.8% | 19.0% | 30.6% | 23.9% |
| 2 Mladost Lucani | 25.1% | 42.0% | 33.9% | 38.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.127 → 12.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Macva | 37.5% | 2.66 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -6.2% | |
| X · Draw | 23.9% | 4.19 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -30.8% | |
| 2 · Mladost Lucani | 38.6% | 2.59 | 2.62 | 38.2% | +1.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 61.4% | 1.63 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -14.0% | |
| X2 | 62.5% | 1.60 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -6.3% | |
| 12 | 76.1% | 1.31 | 1.36 | 73.5% | +3.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Macva | 49.3% | 2.03 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Mladost Lucani | 50.7% | 1.97 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 63.8% | 1.57 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 36.2% | 2.76 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 36.9% | 2.71 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.59 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 17.5% | 5.72 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 82.5% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 51.0% | 1.96 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -0.5% | |
| BTTS no | 49.0% | 2.04 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -14.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 25.8% | 3.88 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 47.8% | 2.09 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 26.4% | 3.78 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.510 × 1.95 − 1 = -0.005 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Macva | Mladost Lucani |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDDWLW | LWLWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 38 / 24 / 39% for home, draw, away. Standings: Macva 11th on 13, Mladost Lucani 9th on 18.
Form
Macva have two wins from their last six (L D D W L W). Latest: 0–2 away at Železničar Pančevo. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Mladost Lucani, last six: L W L W W D – three wins in total. Latest: 0–5 away at Radnicki 1923. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jul 2026): Macva 2–1 Mladost Lucani. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Macva 1.07 · Mladost Lucani 1.10 · total 2.17. Low total: under 2.5 63%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 51%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.96. Most probable score: Macva 1–2 Mladost Lucani. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 5 Jul 2026Macva2–1Mladost Lucani
Super Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 15 | +32 | 43 |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 15 | +17 | 32 |
| 3 |  Železničar Pančevo | 14 | +12 | 29 |
| 4 |  IMT Novi Beograd | 15 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Radnicki 1923 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 6 |  Radnik Surdulica | 15 | +2 | 23 |
| 7 |  Cukaricki | 15 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 |  Novi Pazar | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 |  Mladost Lucani | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 10 |  FK Partizan | 15 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Macva | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 |  OFK Beograd | 15 | -12 | 11 |
| 13 |  Radnicki NIS | 14 | -15 | 8 |
| 14 |  Zemun | 15 | -21 | 7 |
More Super Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Macva vs Mladost Lucani?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 51, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the Macva v Mladost Lucani probabilities?
Macva win 38%, draw 24%, Mladost Lucani win 39%.
What is the most probable score for Macva vs Mladost Lucani?
Macva 1–2 Mladost Lucani is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Macva vs Mladost Lucani?
Macva 1.07, Mladost Lucani 1.10 – over 2.5 at 37%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Macva vs Mladost Lucani?
Sunday 20 September 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Gradski Stadion Sabac – Super Liga.