- λ home
- 1.74
- λ away
- 0.50
- Σλ total
- 2.24
- P(over 2.5)
- 39%
- P(BTTS)
- 45%
- Modal score
- 1–0 18.5%
FK Crvena Zvezda vs Radnicki NIS prediction & xG model: Not both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
FK Crvena Zvezda v Radnicki NIS: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipNot both teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for FK Crvena Zvezda v Radnicki NIS are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (42 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Crvena Zvezda (home) | 1.66 | 1.69 | 1.14 | 3.20 |
| Radnicki NIS (away) | 1.38 | 0.80 | 0.58 | 0.64 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.69 × 1.14 ≈ 3.20
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.84 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.24 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.24 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.74, λaway = 0.50
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 67.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 10.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 18.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FK Crvena Zvezda | 85.7% | 64.0% | 83.6% | 72.2% |
| X Draw | 9.9% | 15.0% | 10.9% | 13.3% |
| 2 Radnicki NIS | 4.4% | 21.0% | 5.5% | 14.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.077 → 7.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FK Crvena Zvezda | 72.2% | 1.38 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -19.8% | |
| X · Draw | 13.3% | 7.53 | 8.50 | 11.8% | +12.9% | |
| 2 · Radnicki NIS | 14.5% | 6.91 | 17.00 | 5.9% | +146.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.5% | 1.17 | 1.02 | 98.0% | -12.8% | |
| X2 | 27.8% | 3.60 | 6.00 | 16.7% | +66.6% | |
| 12 | 86.7% | 1.15 | 1.06 | 94.3% | -8.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FK Crvena Zvezda | 83.3% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Radnicki NIS | 16.7% | 5.99 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 34.5% | 2.90 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 38.8% | 2.58 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.63 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 18.9% | 5.30 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 81.1% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 45.2% | 2.21 | 2.25 | 44.4% | +1.6% | |
| BTTS no pick | 54.8% | 1.82 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -13.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.2% | 2.17 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.9% | 2.28 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 9.9% | 10.06 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.548 × 1.57 − 1 = -0.139 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FK Crvena Zvezda | Radnicki NIS |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWWLW | WLDLDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 17% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – FK Crvena Zvezda 72% to win. Standings: FK Crvena Zvezda 1st on 43, Radnicki NIS 13th on 8.
Form
Sequence for FK Crvena Zvezda: W D W W L W, so four victories in six. Latest: 1–0 away at IMT Novi Beograd. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Radnicki NIS: W L D L D W, so two victories in six. Latest: 3–1 at home to OFK Beograd. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FK Crvena Zvezda 1.74 · Radnicki NIS 0.50 · total 2.24. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 39%, BTTS 45%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Not both teams to score, probability 55%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.82. Most probable score: FK Crvena Zvezda 1–0 Radnicki NIS. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Super Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 15 | +32 | 43 |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 15 | +17 | 32 |
| 3 |  Železničar Pančevo | 14 | +12 | 29 |
| 4 |  IMT Novi Beograd | 15 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Radnicki 1923 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 6 |  Radnik Surdulica | 15 | +2 | 23 |
| 7 |  Cukaricki | 15 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 |  Novi Pazar | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 |  Mladost Lucani | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 10 |  FK Partizan | 15 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Macva | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 |  OFK Beograd | 15 | -12 | 11 |
| 13 |  Radnicki NIS | 14 | -15 | 8 |
| 14 |  Zemun | 15 | -21 | 7 |
More Super Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FK Crvena Zvezda vs Radnicki NIS?
The Model pick is Not both teams to score with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.57 by the bookmakers.
What are the FK Crvena Zvezda v Radnicki NIS probabilities?
FK Crvena Zvezda win 72%, draw 13%, Radnicki NIS win 14%.
What is the most probable score for FK Crvena Zvezda vs Radnicki NIS?
FK Crvena Zvezda 1–0 Radnicki NIS is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FK Crvena Zvezda vs Radnicki NIS?
FK Crvena Zvezda 1.74, Radnicki NIS 0.50 – over 2.5 at 39%, BTTS at 45%.
What time is FK Crvena Zvezda vs Radnicki NIS?
Sunday 20 September 2026, 18:00 WAT, at Rajko Mitić Stadion – Super Liga.