- λ home
- 2.03
- λ away
- 1.97
- Σλ total
- 4.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 76%
- P(BTTS)
- 68%
- Modal score
- 2–1 7.4%
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
NEC Nijmegen v Groningen: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for NEC Nijmegen v Groningen are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 4.00 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 4.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.03, λaway = 1.97
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 40.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 38.5%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 7.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 NEC Nijmegen | – | 41.0% | 40.7% | 40.9% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 25.4% | 20.5% |
| 2 Groningen | – | 42.0% | 33.9% | 38.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.093 → 9.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · NEC Nijmegen | 40.9% | 2.45 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -8.1% | |
| X · Draw | 20.5% | 4.87 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -26.1% | |
| 2 · Groningen | 38.6% | 2.59 | 2.70 | 37.0% | +4.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 61.4% | 1.63 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -14.0% | |
| X2 | 59.1% | 1.69 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -4.2% | |
| 12 | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -0.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB NEC Nijmegen | 51.4% | 1.94 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Groningen | 48.6% | 2.06 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 90.8% | 1.10 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 9.2% | 10.92 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 76.2% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 23.8% | 4.20 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 56.7% | 1.77 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 43.3% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 68.0% | 1.47 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -4.8% | |
| BTTS no | 32.0% | 3.13 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -12.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 34.0% | 2.94 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 33.4% | 3.00 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.6% | 3.07 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.680 × 1.40 − 1 = -0.048 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | NEC Nijmegen | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDDDDL | LWWDDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-4-1 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% |
| BTTS | 83% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 41 / 21 / 39% for home, draw, away. Standings: NEC Nijmegen 11th on 14, Groningen 9th on 15.
Form
Sequence for NEC Nijmegen: W D D D D L, so one victory in six. Latest: 4–2 away at Dinamo Zagreb. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Groningen: L W W D D L, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–5 at home to Ajax. Scoring rate: 2.5 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG NEC Nijmegen 2.03 · Groningen 1.97 · total 4.00. High total: over 2.5 76%, BTTS 68%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 68%, odds 1.40 v fair 1.47. Most probable score: NEC Nijmegen 2–1 Groningen. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Eredivisie table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 12 | +25 | 26 |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 12 | +19 | 25 |
| 3 |  Ajax | 12 | +17 | 25 |
| 4 |  Twente | 12 | +18 | 24 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 12 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 |  Heerenveen | 12 | +8 | 21 |
| 7 |  Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 |  Groningen | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Cambuur | 12 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 |  Utrecht | 12 | -13 | 12 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 12 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 12 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 12 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 12 | -29 | 3 |
More Eredivisie predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.40 by the bookmakers.
What are the NEC Nijmegen v Groningen probabilities?
NEC Nijmegen win 41%, draw 21%, Groningen win 39%.
What is the most probable score for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
NEC Nijmegen 2–1 Groningen is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
NEC Nijmegen 2.03, Groningen 1.97 – over 2.5 at 76%, BTTS at 68%.
What time is NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:30 WAT, at Stadion de Goffert – Eredivisie.