- λ home
- 1.01
- λ away
- 2.62
- Σλ total
- 3.63
- P(over 2.5)
- 68%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.2%
Dordrecht vs Heracles prediction & xG model: Heracles to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Dordrecht 11% · draw 18% · Heracles 71%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Dordrecht v Heracles: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Dordrecht v Heracles are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.96 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.35 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.63 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.01, λaway = 2.62
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 12.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 15.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 71.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.2%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Dordrecht | – | 9.0% | 14.3% | 11.2% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 19.0% | 17.8% |
| 2 Heracles | – | 74.0% | 66.7% | 70.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.086 → 8.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Dordrecht | 11.2% | 8.92 | 6.45 | 15.5% | -27.7% | |
| X · Draw | 17.8% | 5.61 | 4.85 | 20.6% | -13.5% | |
| 2 · Heracles pick | 70.9% | 1.41 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -2.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 29.1% | 3.44 | 2.78 | 36.0% | -19.2% | |
| X2 | 88.8% | 1.13 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -4.1% | |
| 12 | 82.2% | 1.22 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -6.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Dordrecht | 13.7% | 7.33 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Heracles | 86.3% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 85.5% | 1.17 | 1.09 | 91.7% | -6.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 14.5% | 6.87 | 5.40 | 18.5% | -21.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67.6% | 1.48 | 1.39 | 71.9% | -6.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 32.4% | 3.09 | 2.59 | 38.6% | -16.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 46.9% | 2.13 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -2.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | 1.69 | 59.2% | -10.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 60.5% | 1.65 | 1.59 | 62.9% | -3.7% | |
| BTTS no | 39.5% | 2.53 | 2.18 | 45.9% | -14.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 14.2% | 7.05 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 32.0% | 3.12 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 53.8% | 1.86 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.709 × 1.38 − 1 = -0.021 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Dordrecht | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLLWL | WWLDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 2.67 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Heracles 71%, Dordrecht 11%. Standings: Dordrecht 4th on 0, Heracles 16th on 0.
Form
Dordrecht, last six: D L L L W L – one win in total. Latest: 0–0 at home to NAC Breda. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.2 conceded.
Heracles have four wins from their last six (W W L D W W). Latest: 5–1 at home to Roda. Scoring rate: 2.7 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Dordrecht 1.01 · Heracles 2.62 · total 3.63. Goals expected – 68% for over 2.5 and 61% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Model selection: Heracles to win, probability 71%, odds 1.38 v fair 1.41. Most probable score: Dordrecht 1–2 Heracles. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Eerste Divisie table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 14 | +29 | 35 |
| 2 |  VVV Venlo | 14 | +15 | 29 |
| 3 |  Almere City FC | 14 | +16 | 28 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 14 | +5 | 25 |
| 5 |  Roda | 14 | +1 | 25 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 14 | 0 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 14 | +9 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Den Bosch | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 10 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 11 |  Waalwijk | 14 | +3 | 17 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 |  De Graafschap | 13 | -10 | 15 |
| 16 |  FC OSS | 14 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 |  Helmond Sport | 14 | -6 | 12 |
| 18 |  Dordrecht | 14 | -16 | 12 |
| 19 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 |  FC Eindhoven | 14 | -13 | 11 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Dordrecht vs Heracles?
The Model pick is Heracles to win with a model probability of 71, priced around 1.38 by the bookmakers.
What are the Dordrecht v Heracles probabilities?
Dordrecht win 11%, draw 18%, Heracles win 71%.
What is the most probable score for Dordrecht vs Heracles?
Dordrecht 1–2 Heracles is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Dordrecht vs Heracles?
Dordrecht 1.01, Heracles 2.62 – over 2.5 at 68%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Dordrecht vs Heracles?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 20:00 WAT, at GN Bouw Stadion – Eerste Divisie.