- λ home
- 2.47
- λ away
- 1.10
- Σλ total
- 3.57
- P(over 2.5)
- 69%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.5%
Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Almere City FC 65% · draw 22% · Helmond Sport 13%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Almere City FC v Helmond Sport: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Almere City FC v Helmond Sport are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.57 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.56 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.57 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.47, λaway = 1.10
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 67.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.1%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.5%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Almere City FC | – | 64.0% | 66.2% | 64.9% |
| X Draw | – | 25.0% | 18.6% | 22.3% |
| 2 Helmond Sport | – | 11.0% | 15.2% | 12.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.087 → 8.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Almere City FC | 64.9% | 1.54 | 1.39 | 71.9% | -9.8% | |
| X · Draw | 22.3% | 4.48 | 4.95 | 20.2% | +10.4% | |
| 2 · Helmond Sport | 12.8% | 7.83 | 6.05 | 16.5% | -22.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.2% | 1.15 | 1.09 | 91.7% | -4.9% | |
| X2 | 35.1% | 2.85 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -3.9% | |
| 12 | 77.7% | 1.29 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -12.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Almere City FC | 83.6% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Helmond Sport | 16.4% | 6.08 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 86.6% | 1.15 | 1.05 | 95.2% | -9.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 13.4% | 7.46 | 6.50 | 15.4% | -12.8% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 69.1% | 1.45 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -9.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 30.9% | 3.23 | 2.92 | 34.2% | -9.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 48.3% | 2.07 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -7.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 51.7% | 1.93 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -5.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 63.2% | 1.58 | 1.49 | 67.1% | -5.8% | |
| BTTS no | 36.8% | 2.72 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -11.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 50.3% | 1.99 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 33.3% | 3.00 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.4% | 6.11 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.691 × 1.31 − 1 = -0.095 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Almere City FC | Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWLLW | LWLLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 3.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Almere City FC 65% to win. Standings: Almere City FC 9th on 0, Helmond Sport 7th on 0.
Form
Almere City FC, last six: W W W L L W – four wins in total. Latest: 3–1 away at Jong AZ. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average.
Sequence for Helmond Sport: L W L L L L, so one victory in six. Latest: 2–3 at home to FC Volendam. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Feb 2026): Almere City FC 0–1 Helmond Sport. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Almere City FC 2.47 · Helmond Sport 1.10 · total 3.57. Goals expected – 69% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Over 2.5 goals, probability 69%, odds 1.31 v fair 1.45. Most probable score: Almere City FC 2–1 Helmond Sport. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 13 Feb 2026Almere City FC0–1Helmond Sport
Eerste Divisie table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 14 | +29 | 35 |
| 2 |  VVV Venlo | 14 | +15 | 29 |
| 3 |  Almere City FC | 14 | +16 | 28 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 14 | +5 | 25 |
| 5 |  Roda | 14 | +1 | 25 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 14 | 0 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 14 | +9 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Den Bosch | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 10 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 11 |  Waalwijk | 14 | +3 | 17 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 |  De Graafschap | 13 | -10 | 15 |
| 16 |  FC OSS | 14 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 |  Helmond Sport | 14 | -6 | 12 |
| 18 |  Dordrecht | 14 | -16 | 12 |
| 19 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 |  FC Eindhoven | 14 | -13 | 11 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 69, priced around 1.31 by the bookmakers.
What are the Almere City FC v Helmond Sport probabilities?
Almere City FC win 65%, draw 22%, Helmond Sport win 13%.
What is the most probable score for Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport?
Almere City FC 2–1 Helmond Sport is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport?
Almere City FC 2.47, Helmond Sport 1.10 – over 2.5 at 69%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 20:00 WAT, at Yanmar Stadion – Eerste Divisie.