- λ home
- 1.18
- λ away
- 2.52
- Σλ total
- 3.70
- P(over 2.5)
- 71%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.3%
Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Helmond Sport v NAC Breda: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Helmond Sport v NAC Breda are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (26 and 15 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helmond Sport (home) | 1.86 | 0.95 | 0.90 | 1.59 |
| NAC Breda (away) | 1.57 | 1.08 | 1.31 | 2.20 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.86 × 0.95 × 0.90 ≈ 1.59
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.79 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.70 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.70 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.18, λaway = 2.52
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 16.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 66.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Helmond Sport | 27.5% | 10.0% | 18.3% | 13.5% |
| X Draw | 21.1% | 24.0% | 20.8% | 22.6% |
| 2 NAC Breda | 51.4% | 66.0% | 60.9% | 63.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.094 → 9.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Helmond Sport | 13.5% | 7.42 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -32.6% | |
| X · Draw | 22.6% | 4.42 | 4.40 | 22.7% | -0.4% | |
| 2 · NAC Breda | 63.9% | 1.57 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -4.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 36.1% | 2.77 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -9.7% | |
| X2 | 86.5% | 1.16 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -0.5% | |
| 12 | 77.4% | 1.29 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -7.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Helmond Sport | 17.4% | 5.74 | – | – | – | |
| DNB NAC Breda | 82.6% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 88.4% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 11.6% | 8.61 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 71.5% | 1.40 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 28.5% | 3.50 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 50.6% | 1.98 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 49.4% | 2.02 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 62.9% | 1.59 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -5.6% | |
| BTTS no | 37.1% | 2.70 | 2.45 | 40.8% | -9.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 17.3% | 5.80 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 32.7% | 3.06 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 50.0% | 2.00 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.629 × 1.50 − 1 = -0.056 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Helmond Sport | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLLWW | WDWWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% |
| BTTS | 83% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: NAC Breda 64%, Helmond Sport 13%. Standings: Helmond Sport 7th on 0, NAC Breda 13th on 0.
Form
Sequence for Helmond Sport: L D L L W W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–3 away at FC OSS. Per match: 1.8 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
NAC Breda have three wins from their last six (W D W W L L). Latest: 1–0 at home to MVV. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Helmond Sport 1.18 · NAC Breda 2.52 · total 3.70. Goals expected – 71% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 63%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.59. Most probable score: Helmond Sport 1–2 NAC Breda. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Eerste Divisie table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 15 | +30 | 38 |
| 2 |  Almere City FC | 15 | +21 | 31 |
| 3 |  VVV Venlo | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 15 | +7 | 28 |
| 5 |  Roda | 15 | +3 | 28 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 15 | -2 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 15 | +7 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Waalwijk | 15 | +7 | 20 |
| 10 |  Den Bosch | 15 | -2 | 19 |
| 11 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  FC OSS | 15 | -2 | 17 |
| 15 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 16 |  De Graafschap | 14 | -11 | 15 |
| 17 |  FC Eindhoven | 15 | -12 | 14 |
| 18 |  Helmond Sport | 15 | -11 | 12 |
| 19 |  Dordrecht | 15 | -17 | 12 |
| 20 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.50 by the bookmakers.
What are the Helmond Sport v NAC Breda probabilities?
Helmond Sport win 13%, draw 23%, NAC Breda win 64%.
What is the most probable score for Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Helmond Sport 1–2 NAC Breda is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Helmond Sport 1.18, NAC Breda 2.52 – over 2.5 at 71%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Friday 16 October 2026, 19:00 WAT, at GS Staalwerken Stadion – Eerste Divisie.