- λ home
- 2.18
- λ away
- 0.92
- Σλ total
- 3.10
- P(over 2.5)
- 60%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 2–0 10.7%
Den Bosch vs FC OSS prediction & xG model: Den Bosch to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Den Bosch v FC OSS: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipDen Bosch to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Den Bosch v FC OSS are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (23 and 26 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Den Bosch (home) | 1.86 | 0.91 | 0.95 | 1.60 |
| FC OSS (away) | 1.57 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1.41 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.86 × 0.91 × 0.95 ≈ 1.60
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.01 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.10 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.10 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.18, λaway = 0.92
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 66.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 14.7%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 10.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Den Bosch | 41.5% | 73.0% | 53.7% | 64.9% |
| X Draw | 25.2% | 20.0% | 23.4% | 21.4% |
| 2 FC OSS | 33.3% | 7.0% | 22.8% | 13.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.095 → 9.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Den Bosch pick | 64.9% | 1.54 | 1.70 | 58.8% | +10.3% | |
| X · Draw | 21.4% | 4.66 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -16.4% | |
| 2 · FC OSS | 13.7% | 7.32 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -45.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 86.3% | 1.16 | 1.22 | 82.0% | +5.3% | |
| X2 | 35.1% | 2.85 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -28.1% | |
| 12 | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -4.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Den Bosch | 82.6% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| DNB FC OSS | 17.4% | 5.75 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.5% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.5% | 5.41 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 59.9% | 1.67 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 40.1% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.5% | 2.67 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 61.2% | 1.63 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -14.3% | |
| BTTS no | 38.8% | 2.58 | 2.75 | 36.4% | +6.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 48.2% | 2.07 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.5% | 2.74 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.3% | 6.55 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.649 × 1.70 − 1 = +0.103 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.148 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Den Bosch | FC OSS |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLWLL | WWLWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Den Bosch 65% to win. Standings: Den Bosch 3rd on 0, FC OSS 10th on 0.
Form
Sequence for Den Bosch: W D L W L L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–0 away at Jong AZ. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Sequence for FC OSS: W W L W L L, so three victories in six. Latest: 3–1 at home to Helmond Sport. 2.0 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Den Bosch 2.18 · FC OSS 0.92 · total 3.10. Goals expected – 60% for over 2.5 and 61% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Den Bosch to win, probability 65%, odds 1.70 v fair 1.54. Most probable score: Den Bosch 2–0 FC OSS. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Eerste Divisie table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 15 | +30 | 38 |
| 2 |  Almere City FC | 15 | +21 | 31 |
| 3 |  VVV Venlo | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 15 | +7 | 28 |
| 5 |  Roda | 15 | +3 | 28 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 15 | -2 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 15 | +7 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Waalwijk | 15 | +7 | 20 |
| 10 |  Den Bosch | 15 | -2 | 19 |
| 11 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  FC OSS | 15 | -2 | 17 |
| 15 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 16 |  De Graafschap | 14 | -11 | 15 |
| 17 |  FC Eindhoven | 15 | -12 | 14 |
| 18 |  Helmond Sport | 15 | -11 | 12 |
| 19 |  Dordrecht | 15 | -17 | 12 |
| 20 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
The Model pick is Den Bosch to win with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
What are the Den Bosch v FC OSS probabilities?
Den Bosch win 65%, draw 21%, FC OSS win 14%.
What is the most probable score for Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Den Bosch 2–0 FC OSS is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Den Bosch 2.18, FC OSS 0.92 – over 2.5 at 60%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Friday 16 October 2026, 19:00 WAT, at De Vliert – Eerste Divisie.